r/boxoffice • u/DeppStepp • 7h ago
r/boxoffice • u/AutoModerator • 17h ago
Domestic Weekend Prediction Thread & Casual Box Office/Film/Streaming Discussion
(1) Here's your thread to predict this upcoming weekend's domestic box office results and (2) Engage in film/box office/streaming conversations that don't work as a stand alone post for this subreddit. A new thread is created automatically every Monday at 9:00 AM EST.
r/boxoffice • u/SanderSo47 • 5h ago
✍️ Original Analysis Weekend Actuals for October 23-25 – A Face/Off
DC ventured into horror territory with Clayface, which posted a solid start around the world, amidst limitations for the body horror genre. After suffering capacity issues last week, A24 massively expanded You Can See Everything, resulting in a strong second weekend uptick.
Unfortunately, the rest of the newcomers didn't fare very well. Wildwood was the typical Laika film that doesn't come anywhere close to a respectable number. Klara and the Sun was dumped without fanfare. And Amazon chose not to report numbers for Ali G: Who Iz I?. At least Wicker had some respectable numbers with its small push.
The Top 10 earned a combined $87.9 million this weekend. That's up 27.3% from last year, when Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc topped the box office, holding off Regretting You and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
Topping the box office, WB's Clayface debuted with a solid $24 million in 3,458 theaters. That's the lowest start in the DC Universe so far, but it's not like it was expected to come close to the numbers of Superman ($125 million) and Supergirl ($37.1 million).
At the end of the day, the film was sold as a body horror thriller, and WB was wise in keeping the budget low at $44 million. So it's not a bad start at all.
DC hasn't had the best luck lately at the box office, and when it wins, it also comes with a few issues. Superman was very successful domestically, but it disappointed overseas. And Supergirl was a huge failure across the world. Expectations weren't very high for Clayface, given it's a smaller-scale project that wouldn't affect much the universe, either if it succeeded or flopped.
At the very least, the film got to benefit from the spooky season by selling the film less as a comic book title and more like a horror film. Now, this is specifically a body horror, which is a very niche subgenre. The closest comparison was The Substance at $17.5 million, but that was an original IP and had a smaller distributor attached. Clayface is based on a member of Batman's rogue gallery, and while he's not ultra popular like Joker or Penguin, it's still an advantage that other films don't have.
Despite the lack of Batman in the marketing angle, WB did a fine job in attracting horror fans. The very poor reception of Other Mommy also helped, as horror fans abandoned the film and needed something else for the season. Reviews weren't very glowing, but they were solid enough (75% RT) to give it some legs to stand.
According to Warner Bros., it skewed male, and a massive 73% of the audience was in the 18-34 demographic. They gave it a pretty good "A–" on CinemaScore, which is very great for a horror title. Usually horror films that get this grade can show great legs, and the fact that its second weekend falls on Halloween should lead to a good drop. There's also the possibility that it could fall hard after Halloween ends, but for now, Clayface should be safe to hit $60 million domestically.
After its monster debut last week, A24 expanded You Can See Everything to 2,655 theaters. As such, the film saw a 25% increase, earning $19.5 million this weekend. That's a better second weekend than Fahrenheit 9/11 ($16.4 million), which also saw a jump in theater screenings. So that means the film now holds the record for the best second weekend for a documentary. In per-theater average, the film was actually stronger than Clayface ($7,345 vs. $6,941)
Through 10 days, the film has earned a fantastic $45.1 million, making it the third biggest non-music documentary. It's currently $10.3 million behind Fahrenheit 9/11 through the same point, but it's posting some very strong numbers and word of mouth is still incredible. It should continue benefitting from that and the dead zone this weekend. So the film actually stands a chance in hitting $100 million domestically.
Debuting in third place, Fathom's release of Laika's Wildwood opened with $12.2 million in 2,942 theaters. That's Laika's fifth biggest debut, behind Kubo and the Two Strings ($12.6 million), ParaNorman ($14 million), Coraline ($16.8 million) and The Boxtrolls ($17.2 million).
Unfortunately, in terms of financials, this is a very poor start. The film cost a staggering $100 million, and it debuted with just 11% of that, and it couldn't even be among Laika's top 3 debuts. This is sadly on par with Laika's brand; with the exception of Coraline, all their films have flopped at the box office. Maybe there was an expectation that Wildwood could hit $20 million, but it wasn't feasible.
Animation has been very popular, but stop-motion has been a very niche brand. Wildwood marked the biggest debut in the format since Kubo, which further highlights the struggling appeal of the brand. Only two films have cracked $100 million domestically: Chicken Run ($106.8 million) and Coraline ($116.8 million with re-releases). So as you can see, there weren't very high expectations.
The film had wonderful visuals, and it tried to build awareness among animation fans. But the stop-motion brand has its limit, and the film also wasn't the typical animated film. It's a dark fantasy with a PG-13 rating and a 131-minute runtime, which further limits the audience. Not to mention that the film lacked the support of a big studio for distribution. Their prior films were helmed by Focus Features and MGM, while this is distributed by Fathom Events. While Fathom has been successful with re-releases or special events, a blockbuster release of this level is just uncharted territory for them.
Regardless, at least the film has the acclaim on its side: it's sitting at a fantastic 100% on RT and 87 on Metacritic. Some of the best scores of the year, and it's Laika's best rated film on both sites. So at least it didn't fail with the quality.
According to Fathom, 51% of the audience was female, and it played strongly with the 18-34 demographic. As expected, the PG-13 rating swayed families, with kids under 12 representing just 7% of the gross. They gave it a great "A" on CinemaScore, tying with Kubo as Laika's best rated film. Their films usually leg out (the very light drops over the weekend are encouraging), so it's not unreasonable to think it could reach $40 million domestically. But it will still be a very underwhelming number, as it will just be Laika's fifth highest grossing film.
But as history taught us, Laika is not in the business of making money. If it relied heavily on that, it would've closed a long time ago. That Nike money will keep them afloat, so the future of the company is not in jeopardy. But it still deserves better numbers.
After its disappointing start, Paramount's Street Fighter was left for dead in its second weekend. It made just $8.5 million, which represents a horrible 72% drop. That drop is much bigger than Mortal Kombat II (65%), but it's unsurprising considering the film's poor word of mouth. Through 10 days, the film has earned a disappointing $46.9 million and it looks like it will close with a little above $60 million. It could miss that milestone though. And it guarantees that it will finish with less attendance than the reviled 1994 version.
Debuting in fifth place, Black Bear's Wicker earned $5.7 million in 1,471 theaters. Given how the studio's recent projects have performed very poorly, this is quite strong for their standards. The film has great reviews and word of mouth, so maybe it won't fall off quickly.
In sixth place, BTS World Tour ‘Arirang’ secured $4.5 million from just Saturday and Sunday.
Universal/Blumhouse's Other Mommy continues its collapse. It dropped a further 52%, making $3.9 million. With $51.5 million domestically, it only has one week left before Halloween ends and its legs fully die.
Sense and Sensibility is not long for theaters. On its second weekend, it dropped a rough 54%, for a $3.3 million weekend. The drop is surprising, considering the decent word of mouth and the fact that usually films like these are known for legging out. Through 10 days, the film has earned $13.5 million, and it looks to finish with less than $20 million.
Further continuing the bad luck of last week's newcomers, 20th Century Studios' Whalefall also suffered a big drop. It collapsed 61%, earning just $3 million. The film has banked $13.9 million through 10 days, and it's also set to finish with less than $20 million.
Rounding out the Top 10 was Amazon MGM's Verity, which has yet to see a single good drop. It dropped another 49%, for a $3 million weekend. The film has amassed $71.5 million, and it looks to finish with a tad below $80 million.
Outside the Top 10, Resident Evil dropped 47%, making $2.9 million. With $153.5 million domestically, it has passed Weapons to become Zach Cregger's highest grossing film. Halloween should give it one last great drop, securing it can make its way to over $160 million domestically.
Heart of the Beast dropped 48%, earning $2.4 million. The film's domestic total stands at $62.4 million.
Of course, we're missing one wide release here and that's Sony's Klara and the Sun. You have to go till 14th place to find it, as the film earned a pathetic $701,059 in 880 theaters. The film was originally set to play in over 1,900 theaters before Sony decided to slash the count to just 880. The result after the film played at the London Film Festival, where the film was critically panned. With horrible reviews (24% RT) and an abysmal per-theater average of $797, it's not gonna last long in theaters. Marking the latest financial failure for director Taika Waititi and star Jenna Ortega.
Fjord expanded to 107 theaters and made $324,632 this weekend. The film has now made $685,563 domestically, and it's set to hit 500 theaters next week.
Netflix expanded La Bola Negra to 9 theaters, and it earned $245,000, for a strong $27,222 per-theater average. The film has earned $650K in limited release, and it's set to continue a slow expansion.
Still in limited release, the documentary NAZA crossed $1 million domestically.
As the post said up there, Amazon MGM chose not to report numbers for Ali G: Who Iz I?, having decided to forego a wider release. The film will premiere on Prime Video this Wednesday.
OVERSEAS
Clayface debuted with $22.5 million overseas, for a $46.5 million worldwide launch. A bit lower than the expected $45 million launch, but it's still a fine start. Obviously, blockbuster superhero titles aren't comps. So focusing on some recent horror titles, the launch was a little above Other Mommy ($45.6 million).
The film had solid starts in the UK ($2.6M), Australia ($1.3M) and France ($1.2M). But it disappointed in Mexico ($1.4M), a huge market for horror. It also had soft debuts in Brazil ($879K), Italy ($873K), Spain ($721K), UAE ($626K), Germany ($593K), South Korea ($589K), Saudi Arabia ($561K) and Taiwan ($404K). The film should be strong enough to reach $100 million worldwide. It's not a lot of money for a DC title, but given how horrible Supergirl fared, at least it'll be a small win.
Resident Evil added another $10.3 million overseas, pushing its worldwide total to $383.8 million.
Street Fighter is also taking a steep drop in the rest of the world, as it fell 60% overseas, making $8.2 million and taking its worldwide total to a very weak $79.6 million. The best markets are the UK ($5.6M), Mexico ($2.9M), Australia ($2.6M), France ($2.2M), and Germany ($1.6M). If these drops continue, there's the possibility it could miss $100 million worldwide. Which means it could make less than the 1994 version ($99 million), even unadjusted for inflation.
Other Mommy added $5.3 million overseas, for a $95.1 million worldwide run.
Wildwood began its run in a few countries, finding $3 million overseas for a $15.2 million worldwide run. The UK was its biggest market with $1.4 million, while it unearthed $567K in Australia, and disappointed in Italy ($393K), Spain ($242K), and Netherlands ($168K). Next week, it adds more major markets, including Mexico, a big market for Laika's titles.
FILMS THAT ENDED THEIR RUN THIS WEEK
None.
THIS WEEKEND
When Halloween falls on a weekend, studios often avoid releasing big stuff. With so many distractions (trick 'r treatin' or parties), people often avoid theaters during the day. So there's no film opening on wide release here. So it's going to be a battle again between Clayface and You Can See Everything for the top spot.
r/boxoffice • u/AGOTFAN • 5h ago
📠 Industry Analysis ‘Wildwood’ Sparked a Much-Needed Comeback for Laika at the Box Office
r/boxoffice • u/RuminatingReaper1850 • 7h ago
Worldwide Sony's THE SOCIAL RECKONING continues to lose engagement at a disturbing level--down -88% in its 3rd week with just $170k, $9M total. Overseas: $7M. For those keeping track… THE SOCIAL NETWORK grossed nearly $225M worldwide.
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 8h ago
Domestic Warner Bros. / DC Studios' Clayface debuted with $24.00M domestically this weekend (from 3,458 locations). Daily Grosses: FRI - $10.570M; SAT - $7.831M; SUN - $5.602M.
r/boxoffice • u/Own_Philosopher8730 • 15h ago
China China’s First AI Feature Flops At The Chinese Box Office
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 6h ago
📆 Release Date Sacha Baron Cohen’s ‘Ali G: Who Iz I?’ to Stream on Prime Video October 28, Days After Brief Theatrical Stint - Amazon MGM Studios released the comedy in theaters over the weekend for a two-day run and did not report grosses.
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 10h ago
📠 Industry Analysis ‘You Can See Everything’ Box Office Rose 23% in Its Second Weekend. Its Ceiling Is Still Unknown | Analysis - After passing his other hit “Primetime,” director Lance Oppenheim could have just the 11th documentary in history to cross $100 million in grosses.
r/boxoffice • u/TiredWithCoffeePot • 12h ago
Domestic Fathom Entertainment’s release of LAIKA’s Wildwood debuted with $12.27M domestically this weekend (from 2,942 locations). Daily Grosses FRI - $4.352M SAT - $4.214M SUN - $3.707M #Wildwood #BoxOffice
r/boxoffice • u/AGOTFAN • 7h ago
📰 Industry News ‘Call of Duty’ Movie Will Be About the ‘Cost of War and Having to Be a Warrior,’ Says Director: ‘These Are Not Comic Books or Cartoon Characters’
r/boxoffice • u/spider-man2401 • 2h ago
⏳️ Throwback Tuesday Last Night in Soho was released 5 years ago this week. Directed by Edgar Wright, the $43 million film received positive reviews but flopped at the box office, grossing only $10 million domestically and $23 million worldwide
r/boxoffice • u/OverPotato2322 • 16h ago
📰 Industry News Writers Guild Warns of Billionaire Media Control as ‘Musk’ Documentary Faces Alleged Censorship Campaign
r/boxoffice • u/spider-man2401 • 2h ago
⏳️ Throwback Tuesday Puss in Boots was released 15 years ago this week. The $130M Shrek spin-off received positive reviews and was a commercial success, grossing $149.2M domestically and $555M worldwide. It was nominated for Best Animated Feature, and a sequel, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, followed in 2022.
r/boxoffice • u/SanderSo47 • 2h ago
⏳️ Throwback Tuesday Weekend Actuals for October 26-28, 2001 – 'K-Pax' Scares Off 'Thirteen Ghosts'
r/boxoffice • u/Brownit21 • 10h ago
Domestic Black Bear’s Wicker debuted with $5.75M domestically this weekend (from 1,471 locations). Daily Grosses FRI - $2.366M SAT - $1.838M SUN - $1.542M
r/boxoffice • u/Remarkable_Star_4678 • 2h ago
⏳️ Throwback Tuesday The Last Picture Show was released fifty five years ago this week. The $1.3 million coming of age drama was critically acclaimed and was a box office hit making $29.1 million. Won two Oscars and selected into the National Film Registry in 1998.
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 15h ago
🎟️ Pre-Sales Tickets are now in sale for 'Werwulf' at 17 35MM locations.
r/boxoffice • u/chanma50 • 8h ago
👤Casting News Sam Nivola, Nico Parker And Paul Giamatti To Star In 'Grandgear' From 'Godzilla Minus One' Director Takashi Yamazaki, J.J. Abrams And Sony Pictures
r/boxoffice • u/Super-Condition-5331 • 12h ago
United Kingdom & Ireland Why Did Ghosts Top The UK Box Office?
r/boxoffice • u/ThatWaluigiDude • 6h ago
Brazil Brazil weekend (22 - 25 october). The presidential election pulls every movie down, and as a result the weekend is the lowest grossing of the year
r/boxoffice • u/AGOTFAN • 8h ago
📆 Release Window Yes, You Can Still See ‘Musk’ — Here’s What’s Happening With the Film’s Release Plan --- The VOD date is being moved up by several weeks even as it continues to play in theaters.
r/boxoffice • u/iaimforthemiddle • 17h ago
Worldwide Resident Evil Worldwide Gross after 6th Weekend ($384M) vs Backrooms ($357M), Obsession ($332M)
r/boxoffice • u/Remarkable_Star_4678 • 2h ago