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European natural-gas prices climbed to their highest level in nearly four years as escalating attacks in the Middle East threaten supplies and unusually low storage levels raise fears of a global scramble for liquefied natural gas ahead of winter.

The front-month November Dutch TTF natural-gas futures contract—Europe’s benchmark—rose 1.8% to 85.85 euros a megawatt-hour Tuesday, its highest level since December 2022. Prices remain well below the 300-euro-a-megawatt-hour level reached during the energy crisis that year, but have surged more than threefold so far in 2026 after shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz stranded nearly a fifth of global LNG flows.

“The market is grappling with the idea that we’re about to go through a large part of the Northern Hemisphere winter with little Persian Gulf LNG supply,” analysts at ING said.

The supply squeeze has complicated Europe’s efforts to replenish gas inventories ahead of the heating season, leaving the region increasingly exposed to colder weather and renewed competition with Asian buyers for available cargoes.

European Union gas storage facilities are around 73% full, according to industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe, well below the five-year average of 89%. The EU requires member states to fill storage to at least 80% by Nov. 1, widely considered the end of the summer restocking season.

“Europe has entered October with far less in storage than in any other recent year,” said Natasha Fielding, who oversees European gas and global LNG coverage at energy-pricing agency Argus Media. “The closest analog is 2021, just before the last energy crisis.”

Gas storage levels vary widely across Europe: Germany and the Netherlands have particularly low inventories, while storage facilities in Italy, France and Poland are well stocked.

The latest price rally reflects increasing fears of further escalation in the Middle East, as attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf mount and Yemen’s Houthi militants intensify strikes on Saudi Arabia, overshadowing signs of a recovery in exports in recent weeks.

Spot LNG prices have also surged. Cargoes for December delivery to Northeast Asia were assessed at $28.80 per million British thermal units, up from $15.30 on July 1. Prices for November-delivery cargoes to Northwest Europe have nearly doubled over the same period, rising to $26.94 from $13.86, according to the latest data from Argus.

“The recovery in LNG flows through Hormuz in September is by no means guaranteed over the next months and, if anything, flows will remain very patchy,” said Florence Schmit, senior energy strategist at Rabobank.

Expectations for a strong El Nino weather pattern could bring stronger winds and above-normal winter temperatures in Europe, boosting wind-power generation and providing some relief by reducing heating demand in both Europe and Asia. But with storage levels unusually low and Middle Eastern supplies under threat, Europe is increasingly reliant on favorable weather to avoid another winter gas-price shock.

In a particularly cold winter, Europe might need to cut gas demand by as much as 15%, according to scenarios from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas, a group representing the continent’s gas pipeline operators. Despite storage levels being below historical norms, the group said Europe’s gas system remains sufficiently flexible to meet winter demand.