r/TheoryOfReddit • u/bethredly • 2h ago
Replicating the "Reddit early comments score higher finding" in 2026. Posting the method before I collect anything, poke holes please
There’s a cluster of papers from 2013–2017 (Horne et al., Fang et al., summarized in Medvedev’s “Anatomy of Reddit” survey) that all find the same thing: comment score drops hard with time since the post went up, and the top comments are almost always early ones. All of that is pre-redesign, pre-API-changes, pre whatever the feed does now. I want to see if it still holds and how much the window differs by sub.
Method, locked in before I pull: my hypothesis is that top-level comments made within the first 2 hours after a post goes up get higher median scores and are more likely to reach 10+ upvotes than comments made later, in every subreddit studied, with the size of the effect differing by subreddit type.
The data will be the 300 most recent posts that are 7 to 90 days old and have at least 3 comments in each of r/books, r/gardening, r/personalfinance, r/HomeImprovement, r/Cooking, r/travel, r/technology, r/movies and r/unpopularopinion, with their full comment trees (every load more expanded), collected through the official Reddit API at the end of October 2026.
Posts under 7 days old are left out so scores have settled. Deleted and removed comments and replies by the original poster are excluded. I’ll report median score and the share of comments with 10+ upvotes by time since post (0–1h, 1–3h, 3–6h, 6–12h, 12–24h, 24h+), for top-level comments, per subreddit and pooled, plus a straight first-2-hours vs later comparison. Any group with fewer than 100 comments gets flagged and I won’t draw conclusions from it.
I checked each sub’s settings first and dropped any that force a non-default comment sort, since the early-comment advantage depends on “best” sort. That ruled out r/changemyview (it forces Q&A). I also dropped r/buildapc because it gets so many posts that the API listing only reaches back about a week, so there was nothing old enough to sample.
Known weaknesses I already see: scores are the fuzzed visible numbers, not true votes. Excluding deleted comments probably biases toward “safe” comments. “Best” sort itself creates a feedback loop where early comments get more views, so I’m measuring the outcome of the system, not comment quality. In busy subs, “300 most recent posts 7–90 days old” in practice means posts from the last couple of weeks, not a spread across three months. If anyone sees a bigger problem than those, I’d rather hear it now than after a day of API calls.
I’ll post results in this thread. Scripts and CSVs will be public.