r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 7d ago

Areas to watch: Champi, Vance, In-fa Global Tropical Outlook & Discussion: 19-25 October 2026

4 Upvotes

Active cyclones

Northwestern Pacific Ocean

29W: Typhoon Champi

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

21E: Hurricane Trudy

Southeastern Pacific Ocean

01P: Cyclone Wati

Active disturbances

Northern Indian Ocean

Invest 96A

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of cyclonic turning positioned far off the coast of Somalia is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is currently in a quasi-stationary state, embedded within the opposing wind flow between two mid-level ridges, and will likely remain so for the next few days. Although environmental conditions remain favorable, with moderate easterly vertical wind shear offset by warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level divergence, model guidance suggests that the disturbance will be slow to develop over the next few days, if it develops at all. As the storm starts to move northwestward later this week, mid-level moisture is likely to decrease substantially.

The potential for this system to become a tropical depression or storm by the end of the week remains low.

Southern Indian Ocean

Invest 93S

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad area of low pressure positioned over the Seychelles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is moving westward along the northern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge positioned to the south and will gradually turn west-southwestward over the next couple of days before turning southwestward in response to a shift in the position of the steering ridge. Environmental conditions remain generally favorable, with weak vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and abundant mid-level moisture.

The potential for this system to become a tropical depression or storm by the end of the week is moderate.

Areas of potential development

Northern Atlantic Ocean

Disturbance 1 – Off the coast of the eastern United States

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the waters off the eastern and northeastern coasts of the United States for potential subtropical cyclone development later this week. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad non-tropical low is active off the coast of North Carolina. Moisture wrapping around this low is expected to bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts over the next couple of days. Later this week, this system is expected to drift northward and northeastward and deepen, creating a persistent and strong onshore wind flow which will cause moderate coastal flooding, life-threatening surf conditions, and beach erosion.

The potential for this system to become a subtropical storm by the end of the week is moderate.

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

Disturbance 1 — Off the coast of southern Mexico

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the waters far off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico for potential tropical cyclone development later this week. Satellite imagery analysis indicates that a broad surface trough positioned far to the west of Panama is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is likely to develop within this area of enhanced convection over the next day or so and drift westward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned over Mexico. Environmental conditions remain favorable in this region and should allow for steady development.

The potential for this system to become a tropical depression or storm by the end of the week remains high.

Satellite imagery

Model guidance

Information sources

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMC)

Other sources

Global outlooks

Climate Prediction Center

0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8d ago

▼ Post-Tropical Cyclone (TS) | 40 knots (45 mph) | 999 mbar Champi (29W — Western Pacific) (Philippine Sea)

13 Upvotes

Storm overview

This is a discussion for Tropical Storm Champi (29W), which is active over the western Pacific.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Champi continues to steadily unwind off the coast of eastern China. Animated infrared imagery reveals that the storm has not produced deep convection for the past several hours and its low-level center remains completely exposed by strong southerly shear. Champi is moving north-northeastward as it rounds the western periphery of a subtropical ridge which is positioned to the southeast of Honshu. The storm is moving through an increasingly hostile environment characterized by strong shear, unfavorably cool waters, and decreasing mid-level moisture and will continue to weaken as it interacts with a developing extratropical cyclone over Japan over the next few days. Champi is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone later this afternoon and accelerate northeastward across Japan over the next few days.

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

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37 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 14h ago

▲ Tropical Storm | 35 knots (40 mph) | 1002 mbar Olana (03C — Central Pacific) (Southwest of Hawaiʻi)

5 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Olana (03C), which is active over the central Pacific.

A tropical depression formed several hundred kilometers southwest of the Hawaiian Islands earlier this morning and has since strengthened into a tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center upgraded the depression and assigned it the name Olana, making it the twenty-fourth named storm of the season and the fourth named storm to develop entirely within the central Pacific basin.

Olana is moving east-northeastward along the southern periphery of a broad and poorly organized deep-layer trough positioned to the north. The storm is expected to move erratically eastward with the trough over the next few days. Although environmental conditions were favorable enough to support the storm’s formation and intensification today, they are not likely to remain favorable enough to support further meaningful development. Olana is likely to reach its peak intensity later this evening and then begin to weaken as it encounters a strong increase in westerly vertical wind shear. Olana is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon and will dissipate before it reaches Johnson Atoll.

Though Olana is not expected to bring direct impacts to the Hawaiian Islands, its presence is expected to pull the monsoon trough northward, resulting in a persistent flow of deep tropical moisture and atmospheric instability which could cause prolonged heavy rain and strong thunderstorms across the islands from Tuesday to Thursday.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

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Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (Mexico)

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12h ago

▲ Deep Depression (TS) | 35 knots (40 mph) | 1002 mbar 02B (Northern Indian) (Bay of Bengal)

3 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for Cyclone Two (02B), which is active over the northern Indian Ocean.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that an area of low pressure situated over the north-central Bay of Bengal has become sufficiently organized to be considered a tropical cyclone and is producing tropical storm-force winds. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has upgraded this system to a deep depression and has initiated issuing advisories, but because they have not yet assessed that this system is producing tropical storm-force winds, they have not yet assigned it a name. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has also initiated issuing advisories for this system, designating it as Cyclone Two (02B).

The storm is moving westward along the southern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge which is building across the Bay of Bengal from southeastern Asia. This ridge will remain in place for the next couple of days, keeping the storm on a westward path through landfall on Wednesday. The storm is currently expected to move inland near the mouth of the Godavari River in Andhra Pradesh before turning sharply northward as it moves along the western periphery of the steering ridge.

The storm is moving through a favorable environment characterized by weak vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. There is a chance that this system could undergo rapid intensification within the next 24 hours before atmospheric moisture begins to rapidly decrease closer to the coast of India. The IMD and JTWC project that this system will reach a peak intensity of 120 to 125 kilometers per hour (65 to 70 knots) just prior to landfall on Wednesday.

Official information

India Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

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2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 1d ago

Satellite Imagery Sentinel-3C captures Hurricane Rachel

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11 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 2d ago

▲ Typhoon (H1) | 75 knots (85 mph) | 979 mbar In-fa (30W — Western Pacific) (Near the Marshall Islands)

10 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Typhoon In-fa (30W), which is active over the western Pacific.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that In-fa continues to strengthen as it pulls farther away from the Marshall Islands. The storm continues to move northwestward under the steering influence of a near-equatorial ridge positioned to its southeast. A subtropical ridge positioned to the northwest is building eastward, creating opposing wind flow which has caused In-fa to slow down over the past several hours. The subtropical ridge is expected to become the dominant steering mechanism within the next day or so, pushing In-fa onto a west-northwestward track.

In-fa is moving through a favorable environment characterized by weak vertical wind shear, very warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant atmospheric moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. The storm is expected to undergo further intensification over the next few days, reaching major hurricane-equivalent strength during the late evening hours tonight. In-fa is currently projected to reach a peak intensity near 220 kilometers per hour (120 knots) on Friday morning as it passes well to the north of Saipan and Tinian in the Northern Marianas Islands.

Official information

Japan Meteorological Agency

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

National Weather Service (United States)

Radar imagery

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 3d ago

Satellite Imagery Extratropical Cyclone Whips Past Iceland - NASA Science

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71 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 4d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Subtropical Cyclone Josephine - October 21, 2026

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10 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

Dissipated Josephine (10L — Northern Atlantic) (Off the U.S. East Coast)

35 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Subtropical Storm Josephine (10L), which is active over the subtropical western Atlantic.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that the frontal boundaries associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure situated far off the coast of the northeastern United States have dissipated and the low itself has developed subtropical characteristics. The storm, which has been named Josephine by the National Hurricane Center, is moving slowly northward today as a mid-level shortwave ridge passes to its north. Josephine is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the west on Thursday.

Further interaction with this trough is likely to lead to intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours, but is likely to transition Josephine into a full-fledged extratropical cyclone by Thursday. Although the storm is expected to remain far offshore through the upcoming weekend, its wind field will be expansive, leading to strong winds along the coasts of the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. Furthermore, strong onshore flow associated with Josephine will result in coastal flooding and life-threatening surf conditions and rip currents along the coast for the next few days.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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2 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

▼ Tropical Storm | 55 knots (65 mph) | 995 mbar Vance (22E — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

14 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Vance (22E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Vance’s convective structure continues to deteriorate as the storm lingers off the coast of southwestern Mexico this evening. The storm continues to move to the north-northwest under the steering influence of a mdi-level ridge centered over the south-central United States and will likely gradually turn northward over the next few days. Vance is expected to remain offshore through the end of the week and reach the coast of Sinaloa on Friday.

Vance is moving through an unfavorable environment. Although sea-surface temperatures remain very warm, they are heavily offset by dry mid-level air, weak upper-level divergence, and strong westerly vertical wind shear. Vance is expected to continue to gradually weaken over the next few days and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Vance is expected to reach Sinaloa as a remnant low on Friday evening.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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5 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/ComfortableAthlete34 • 4d ago

Satellite Imagery | Satellite Liaison Blog Hurricane Isaias Satellite Recap

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9 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 4d ago

Dissipated The NHC is monitoring an area of potential development over the subtropical central Atlantic

11 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for an area of potential tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the waters of the subtropical central Atlantic for potential tropical cyclone development. A trough of low pressure situated several hundred kilometers to the southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This system, which has not yet been designated as an investigation (invest) area by the National Hurricane Center, is drifting north-northeastward along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned to the east and may continue to move in this direction for the next few days.

Environmental conditions may support some brief and gradual development over the next couple of days, but the chances for further development will drop considerably at the end of the week as this system reaches stronger shear and cooler waters.

Official information

National Hurricane Center

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 4d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Super Typhoon Champi - October 20, 2026

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7 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 5d ago

Dissipated Agueda (02S — Southwestern Indian) (Near the Seychelles)

6 Upvotes

Disturbance overview

This discussion is for Cyclone Agueda (02S), which is active over the southwestern Indian Ocean.

Cyclone Agueda, which is currently situated just west of Seychelles, is steadily becoming better organized. The storm is moving west-southwestward under the steering influence of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge positioned over Madagascar and will briefly turn southwestward over the next day or so as a near-equatorial ridge builds to the west. Agueda will likely resume a west-southwestward movement on Thursday as a subtropical ridge strengthens to the south of the storm.

Agueda is moving through a moderately favorable environment characterized by weak vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, abundant mid-level moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. The storm is expected to go through a brief period of steady intensification over the next couple of days and reach its peak intensity on Thursday evening. After that point, decreasing atmospheric moisture and decreasing sea-surface temperatures will cause the storm to gradually weaken. Agueda is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday evening.

Official information

Météo-France

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/ReflectionOk9644 • 7d ago

Question On storm surge forecast

17 Upvotes

For wind and rainfall forecast, I could find these forecasts for pretty much any location on Earth using multiple models like ECMWF, GFS, ICON, etc... For storm surge though forecast though it's only available for location on US coastline. So why does it happen, and how could we expand that type of forecast for other locations?

3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/UltraPlinian • 9d ago

Radar Imagery Refectivity showing Typhoon Champi's intense inner core missing just to the south of Guam's southern coastline.

51 Upvotes

Guam is incredibly lucky here as it appears Champi is further intensifying as the inner core passes by just to the south. Notice the intense mesovorticies rotating around the inner edge of the eyewall. In the last frame, you will see a very well-defined meso with bright purple reflectivity in the NW quadrant of the eye. Champi is most likely about to be a super typhoon, if not already. Again, Guam is getting incredibly lucky here despite the impacts they are experiencing.

Edit: Title should spell "Reflectivity."

1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Apprehensive_Cut2880 • 8d ago

Satellite Imagery Typhoon Champi rapidly organizes into very powerful super typhoon south of Guam

24 Upvotes
1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/dBasement • 9d ago

Question Could someone please explain this anomaly?

24 Upvotes

I see this funnel of very strong winds blowing south between the Caribbean and Pacific whenever there is a hurricane, or even stormy weather in the Pacific.

4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8d ago

Dissipated Trudy (21E — Eastern Pacific) (West of Mexico)

2 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Hurricane Trudy (21E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Despite persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear, Hurricane Trudy is maintaining strength as a Category 2 hurricane off the coast of Jalisco in southwestern Mexico. The storm is moving toward the northwest under the steering influence of a weak low- to mid-level ridge building over eastern Mexico. Moderate shear is currently offset by very warm sea-surface temperatures and sufficient amounts of mid-level moisture and upper-level divergence. Thus, Trudy could still eke out some additional intensification this evening.

Trudy is likely to reach its peak intensity late tonight and will start to weaken on Sunday as shear strengthens and atmospheric moisture rapidly decreases. As the storm’s convective structure starts to become increasingly shallow, the storm will turn west-northwestward as it becomes embedded within lower-level easterly wind flow. Trudy will pull away from mainland Mexico and move toward the Baja California peninsula early next week.

Hurricane conditions are ongoing along the coast of Jalisco and will continue through Sunday. Heavy rain will continue across portions of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco throughout the weekend. Trudy will continue to generate large swells which will create dangerous surf conditions along the coast of southwestern Mexico which will spread northward over the next few days.

Official information

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 8d ago

Dissipated Wati (01P — Southern Pacific) (North of the Cook Islands)

2 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Cyclone Wati (01P), which is active over the southern Pacific.

Satellite imagery analysis indicates that Wati has reached hurricane-equivalent strength. The storm, which is situated several hundred kilometers east of Samoa, is moving slowly south-southeastward along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge positioned to the east. Over the next few days, Wati will accelerate as it turns increasingly southeastward. Environmental conditions will remain favorable for the next 12 to 24 hours, allowing for some additional intensification. However, by early Sunday morning, the storm will begin to weaken as it moves over progressively cooler waters and encounters stronger vertical wind shear and drier air. This system may bring periods of heavy rain to portions of the Cook Islands early next week.

Information sources

Fiji Meteorological Service

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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NOTE: Neither Tropical Tidbits nor CyclonicWx have zoomed-in regional views of the southern Pacific Ocean.

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1 comment

r/TropicalWeather • u/onewhitelight • 9d ago

Seasonal Forecast | Earth Sciences New Zealand Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2026

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5 Upvotes
3 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 11d ago

Image of the Day | NASA Science Hurricane Simon Lurks Off the Mexican Coast - NASA Science

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17 Upvotes
4 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Galileos_grandson • 11d ago

Image of the Day | NASA MODIS Hurricane Simon Whips Southwestern Mexico - October 12, 2026

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8 Upvotes
0 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • 12d ago

Discussion moved to new post Trudy (21E — Eastern Pacific) (South of Mexico)

8 Upvotes

Storm overview

This discussion is for Tropical Storm Trudy (21E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

A tropical depression which formed several hundred kilometers off the coast of southern Mexico continues to become better organized and estimates derived from satellite imagery analysis reveal that it is now producing tropical storm-force winds. The storm, which has been assigned the name Trudy by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is moving northwestward under the steering influence of a mid-level ridge which persists over the Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions remain favorable and should allow Trudy to continue to steadily develop over the next couple of days.

The mid-level steering ridge is expected to weaken and retreat eastward over the next couple of days, leaving behind a very weak steering environment and causing Trudy to slow down. The storm will likely turn slightly northward as its movement becomes more heavily influenced by Hurricane Simon, which will still be active off the coast of western Mexico. A cold front may swoop down across Texas and Mexico later in the week and could pull Trudy closer to the coast toward the end of the week. There remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding Trudy’s track during the latter half of the week.

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12 comments

r/TropicalWeather • u/ClimateMessiah • 12d ago

Discussion My wishes for the meteorological community

5 Upvotes

This subreddit serves multiple purposes. It's like a newspaper for those interested in the academic aspects of tropical cyclones. It's an educational community communication hub for those who are potentially in harm's way.

The greatest potential harm to humans appears not be associated with peak wind speed or lowest central air pressure. The greatest threat seems to be related to the volume of water which be transferred into their land territory. Rainfall and surge are storm specific water invasions.

The Saffir-Simpson index is misleading to the public because it offers a metric which appears to represent hurricane strength as having reached a peak.

The community would benefit from some innovation and better metrics which appropriately and unequivocally inform the world that these storms are becoming more dangerous. Not only as a result of storm specific surge and rainfall, but also due to chronic rise in sea levels.

How does such innovation arise? It begins with people saying that they represent a market for that information. Is there anyone else who would like to be informed of the increasing volumes of water being transferred inland as a result of these storms?

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