Even up north in Scotland, it's 15°C

My thermometer shows lower, I am in Scotland.

This is shaping up to be a very rare event, it’s possibly slightly too early to tell but if true, we could be in for some cold weather soon? By soon, I mean late November, early December time. Also it doesn’t guarantee widespread snow even if true. More so colder nights, more chance of morning frost and fog, and SOME snow.

Obviously, nothing is guaranteed at this stage, and a weakening polar vortex doesn't automatically mean an SSW or a cold spell for the UK. However, with the SSW probability rising this quickly, it's certainly something worth keeping an eye on.

More images in comments

Hi All,

I was wondering if anyone could recommend any good UK weather podcasts, please?

Keen to have a better understanding of weather generally!

Cheers!

The amount of times I have seen this gfs run throw up blizzards our 18 degrees in winter is ridiculous.

Is that normal

People are posting and more so commenting that we might be in for a cold snowy winter going into 2027, just asking if this is true, BS or unsure as i dont wanna get my hopes up like the other years, i mean even if it true im still just gonna have "i'll believe it when i see it" mindset but yeah just asking

Gusts over 100mph recorded in the North of Scotland in some very exposed areas. Widely 70-85mph even well away from coasts. I'm very inland, and more towards the north east, and our local station has hit 78mph.

Sustained wind speeds (not on a mountain top) have hit 65mph in Altnaharra. Whilst obviously very windy, still crazy to think this would be a moderately strong tropical storm (just taking into account wind speeds) 💨 💨

Anyone got any damage or reports from where you are? Plenty of trees, fences and sheds down here and a local village has finally had a runaway trampoline, so it can officially be a British storm

Looks like Post tropical storm Josephine might get dragged across the atlantic towards us, given the current wind patterns.

Tbh, checking the forecast in the UK doesn't necessarily help me decide what to wear.

It just gives me five different versions of how my day might go 😄

At this point, I'm convinced the only reliable forecast is: bring a jacket.

First Pic taken by Ed Weatherby on Flickr and the Second was taken by Sabine Groel-Koch on Flickr

Live in the north east of Scotland. Over a 40 hPa pressure drop. Pretty impressive for October

I thought I would change up the content

Early signs that the models are rebuilding high pressure to the west and over the top of the country from next weekend? I must warn though there is disagreement because of how strong the jet stream is at the moment. I will keep you posted expect wet and windy conditions up until next weekend and very mild.

The ECMWF thinks so, although probabilities are still low at the moment. It would be "fairly" unprecedented. Even if not a full reversal, it does look like the PV will be slowing and quite weak which means we will probably get some high latitude blocking.

Definitely feeling the drop in temperature this week but still holding out a bit longer, is your heating on?

The first 7 days of the month will be high pressure dominated with high pressure accross North Western Europe and accross Scandinavia. This will bring anticyclonic and damp conditions with temperatures in mid to low single digits to low double digits. It should be around average nothing to crazy happening yet. (High confidence)

The Atlantic will stage a comeback in 7 to 14 day timeframe and become more dominate accross UK and Western Europe. This will mean the week should be above average rain and wind with temperatures 2 to 4 degrees above normal. The polar vortex will be in a severely weakened to near collapsed state. High pressure will remain mostly dominant to North East. (Medium confidence)

This is where the weather becomes deeply uncertain is the second half November. High pressure will stage a fight back v the low pressure. Though the Atlantic will remain dominant for now accross UK France and North West Europe. Above average rain and temperatures 2 to 4 degree above the average. The polar vortex by this point will be filtering down to the surface. The 1 to 3 week lag will nearly be done. (Low confidence)

The final week of November is scrutiny to change so take this with a grain of salt. High pressure will start to become dominant accross Western Europe and start dragging in Easterly winds. Nothing exceptional but 2 to 4 degrees below normal. This will cause the jet stream to buckle to the South into Spain and Mediterranean leading to very wet conditions there. It will be drier than normal in North Western Europe and Scandinavia with early snow and frosts.

(Low confidence)

Drop your predictions below

i'm in somerset i'm absolutely drenched