r/HistoryWhatIf • u/TheRedBiker • 6h ago
What if Shu Han won the Three Kingdoms War?
Historically, none of the eponymous Three Kingdoms won the century-long war after the collapse of the Han Dynasty. Shu Han was conquered by Wei in 263, and then Sima Yan overthrew the Wei Emperor in 266 to form the Jin Dynasty. He then invaded and conquered Wu in 280, uniting the land under the short-lived Jin Dynasty.
My question is what if Shu Han (often viewed as the good guys thanks to Romance of the Three Kingdoms and the Dynasty Warriors video game series) had managed to defeat its enemy Wei and unite the land? The most likely POD I can think of is that its ally Wu doesn't betray Guan Yu at Fancheng, allowing Guan Yu's forces to meet up with the Shu Army from Hanzhong and attack the Wei capital, Luoyang, defeating Wei. Shu Han branded itself as a continuation of the Han Dynasty, so I could see Liu Bei restoring the Han Emperor to the throne as a figurehead while performing the actual governance himself.
However, the real question is how long unification under Shu would have lasted. Liu Bei died in 223, and his son, Liu Shan, was infamously incompetent and possibly mentally disabled. An incompetent ruler would have led to instability, as was historically the case with Sima Yan's son Sima Zhong. Not to mention the Sun family might have tried to seize an opportunity to wrest control of the land away from the Liu Family, especially if someone like Sun Hao still became the head of the Sun Clan.