Our draft situation next year is a little complicated (at least for me), so wanted to make a post elucidating it for everyone else.
For the 2027 draft, we are sending our own first round pick to San Antonio (last pick from Dejounte trade). We are receiving the worst of Pelicans and Bucks (top 4 protected) from Dyson/Dejounte trade. There is a small but notable risk that the Pelicans keep both picks. It would require them to both fall in top 4.
Under the old draft lottery, it would be all but guaranteed that Pelicans keep both picks, given how terrible both teams look. Under next year's 3-2-1 draft lottery, the odds change drastically.
Unless both the Pelicans and Bucks fall in top 4, we'll have at least one first round pick. Next year's draft will have the new 3-2-1 draft lottery, which flattens odds amongst all non-playoff teams and specifically punishes bottom 3 record teams.
Here are the three non-playoff scenarios and odds we lose the pick
- Scenario 1: (~5.7% odds, 5 balls) 1 team is in the bottom 3, 1 team avoids it (but misses the play-in / 11th seed or lower)
- Scenario 2: (~3.9% odds, 4 balls): Both teams have bottom 3 record
- Scenario 3: (~8.4% odds, 6 balls) Both teams avoid the bottom 3 (and are below the play-in / 11th seed or lower)
Previously, I thought the most likely outcome is Scenario 3: both teams aren't horrible enough for bottom 3 but also not good enough to make the play-in. After yesterday's showing, where the Pelicans blew a 31 point lead, I suspect at least either Pels/Bucks will be in bottom 3 relegation zone, Scenario 1. Great for us.
Here are the five play-off scenarios and odds we lose the pick
- Scenario 1 (0% odds): One or both teams makes the playoffs
- Scenario 2 (3.8% odds, 4 balls): One team is bottom 3, other team loses in Play-In tournament as a 9/10 seed
- Scenario 3 (5.6% odds, 5 balls): One team is 11-13th seed, other team loses in Play-In tournament as a 9/10 seed
- Scenario 4 (2.1% odds, 3 balls): One team is bottom 3, other team loses in Play-In tournament as a 7/8 seed
- Scenario 5 (3.8% odds, 4 balls): One team is 11-13th seed, other team loses in Play-In tournament as a 7/8 seed
I doubt we'll see any of these 5 scenarios, but added for completeness. Anyways, this all to say: we have at least 91% odds at keeping the pick, no matter what happens
Worth playing around with tankathon simulator to get intuition: https://www.tankathon.com/.