In the Ukrainian-Russian War, The Israeli/US-Iran War, and the ongoing Saudi-Houthi War, the ineffectiveness of air defenses against saturation attacks by drone and ballistic missile barrage has been a clear and inarguable reality. In some cases, even single drones, wholly guided by AI and impervious to EW, has maneuvered around radars to strike far behind enemy lines. The effect is that ground-based defenses have become clearly inadequate.
And with the evolution of drones from ICE engines to jet/rocket propulsion, built at a small fraction of the cost of an intercepting aircraft and far less than their cheapest munitions, while also being manufactured at a far higher rate, the air-to-air element of defense is clearly untenable, more so in the near future.
And this is disregarding the rapid evolution of ballistic missiles, with the technology to build relatively advanced versions already disseminated, and in reach of factions like the Houthis, who aren’t exactly a wealthy, cutting-edge military power.
In light of all this:
1) Are we witnessing the end of the air-defense doctrine’s that have allowed for the projection of power by “great powers” and their allies?
2) How will this affect (upend?) the current, global geopolitical balance of power?
3) To borrow from gaming-parlance, have we reached the end of the “tech tree” in terms of effective air defense?
4) What doctrinal evolution will take the place of the current paradigm? And to head off the “lasers!” argument; neither is the technology is mature enough, nor the physical limitations of range, adverse weather conditions, and the simple counter of ablative heat-tiles make them effective replacements (although I welcome any corrections to this assessment).
5) In regard to the Iran-Israel exchange in particular, there are whispers among military analysts that Iran’s calculations included the possibility of an Israeli nuclear response if their barrages were too effective. And in light of that, could we see doctrines evolve in that direction?