Megathread Schedule:

Makai Lemon gets his first real look as the featured receiver in an Eagles offense that desperately lacks upside.

Final stat line: 7 receptions for 67 yards, and his 1st NFL touchdown.

With the Eagles season essentially lost, and plenty of passing game scripts imminent, are we on the verge of witnessing the next rookie receiver 2nd half breakout?

I think a lot of folks are also trying to tank to the 1.01 with the aims to flip it for larger packages but I can barely count on one hand the trades for 1.01 I’ve seen get done in any of my leagues, and I doubt those owners will be able to recoup anywhere close to the value they shipped off to ensure their MAXPF is low enough to get Smith.

Smith is an incredible prospect but I just never see the thought process in trying to outrank to get this kind of player when it leaves the team completely barren.

Would love to hear any counters on this though…

Edit: just to clarify I’m not talking about a sell off where you have the 1.01 and five other firsts in 2027 or multiple over the next few years… that’s fine. I’m talking about selling production for pennies where your only first is the 1.01 and you have maybe another future first or a ton of seconds and thirds.

Cameron: 51% of snaps

BTJ: 21% of snaps

Neither player recorded a reception which is likely why this flew under the radar, but it seems Cameron has officially taken over as the Jag's WR 3. I think there is a high likelihood that BTJ has played his last game as a Jag with the trade deadline looming.

Here’s Week 7 of the playoff chances by record (median league numbers are at the bottom of the post).

Quick refresher: Roster Audit’s playoff and title odds use a lot of inputs, like team strength, league strength, injuries, and remaining schedule. One of those inputs is how teams with your record have finished in past seasons. That’s the data below.

The big takeaway: there’s no coin flip anymore. A 4-3 team made the playoffs about 2 in 3 times. A 3-4 team made it about 2 in 5 times. One game is a 30-point swing.

7-0:

• 99.5% of 7-0 teams made the playoffs
• 86.8% got a first-round bye
• 93.8% made the semifinals
• 53.4% made the championship game
• 28.7% won the title

6-1:

• 97.5% of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
• 64.7% got a first-round bye
• 84% made the semifinals
• 43.6% made the championship game
• 22.8% won the title

5-2:

• 89.1% of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
• 35.8% got a first-round bye
• 66.9% made the semifinals
• 32.2% made the championship game
• 16.1% won the title

4-3:

• 68.3% of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
• 13.2% got a first-round bye
• 44.7% made the semifinals
• 19.5% made the championship game
• 9.5% won the title

3-4:

• 38.9% of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
• 2.9% got a first-round bye
• 23.1% made the semifinals
• 9.5% made the championship game
• 4.5% won the title

2-5:

• 13.9% of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
• 0.4% got a first-round bye
• 7.8% made the semifinals
• 3% made the championship game
• 1.4% won the title

1-6:

• 3% of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
• 0% got a first-round bye
• 1.6% made the semifinals
• 0.6% made the championship game
• 0.3% won the title

0-7:

• 0.3% of 0-7 teams made the playoffs
• 0% got a first-round bye
• 0.2% made the semifinals
• 0.1% made the championship game
• almost none won the title

Median leagues

In median leagues you play your opponent and the league median every week, so after 7 weeks you have 14 results.

• 14-0: 99.9% made the playoffs, 34.4% won the title
• 13-1: 99.4% made the playoffs, 27.9% won the title
• 12-2: 98.6% made the playoffs, 24.4% won the title
• 11-3: 96.3% made the playoffs, 19.9% won the title
• 10-4: 91.3% made the playoffs, 15.3% won the title
• 9-5: 82.5% made the playoffs, 12.5% won the title
• 8-6: 68.3% made the playoffs, 8.8% won the title
• 7-7: 51.3% made the playoffs, 5.7% won the title
• 6-8: 33.6% made the playoffs, 3.4% won the title
• 5-9: 18.7% made the playoffs, 1.8% won the title
• 4-10: 8.8% made the playoffs, 0.8% won the title
• 3-11: 3.4% made the playoffs, 0.3% won the title
• 2-12: 1.2% made the playoffs, 0.1% won the title
• 1-13: 0.2% made the playoffs, almost none won the title
• 0-14: 0.1% made the playoffs, almost none won the title

Key takeaways:

• 7-0 is a lock for the playoffs, but still under a 1 in 3 title shot. Almost half of 7-0 teams don’t reach the title game.
• 5-2 is in great shape at an about 9 in 10 shot of making the playoffs. 2-5 drops to about 1 in 7, and 1-6 is about 1 in 30. If you’re 1-6 or 0-7 with an older roster, the trade deadline is your friend.
• In median leagues, 7-7 is a coin flip. 8-6 makes it about 2 in 3 times, and 6-8 about 1 in 3.

Like every week, this is only your record. It doesn’t know how good your roster is or who’s left on your schedule. A 4-3 team that lost close games to the best teams in the league is in a very different spot than a 4-3 team that beat the three worst.

Roster Audit has all of this customized for your team and league (Sleeper only) in the League Hub: https://rosteraudit.com/league/ It factors in your roster, your league, injuries, remaining schedule and more.

I’ll keep doing this each week as long as people find it useful. What’s your record after Week 7, and how are you feeling about your team?

If you're looking for Deeper Dives into the 2027 NFL Draft, the Fantasy For Real podcast is a great place to listen to future prospect coverage. This week's podcast begins by covering the players listed in this section, and then follows that up with my latest 2-Round SF Mock Draft. Check out Fantasy for Real wherever you get your podcasts!

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/215l6gMkT94gGvNY66IbPF

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-for-real/id1732922319

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Risers & Fallers of the Week

Co-Risers of the Week: is LSU’s key QB+WR Combo Breaking Out?

Sam Leavitt, QB, LSU via Arizona State

After a difficult start to the Season, Sam Leavitt seems to be getting more comfortable within Lane Kiffin’s system. Through the first 3 Gs of the Season, Sam Leavitt had completed 57 of 93 (61.3%) passes with 3 TDs & 5 INTs. Over the past 5 Gs, Leavitt has been an entirely different QB, completing 121 of 161 passes (75.2%) for 14 TDs & 3 INTs. And that’s just as a passer. Aside from LaNorris Sellers – who remains outside of serious consideration on my own board – Leavitt is THE best QB Rusher in this potential 2027 QB Class. Despite dealing with a hamstring injury this season, Leavitt has rushed for 50+ Yards in 5 of 7 Gs against FBS Competition with 388 Rushing Yards & 8 Rushing TDs in just those 7 Gs. Combined with an excellent arm, Leavitt was in the category of players who could make an argument for the 1st Round on traits alone, but at this level of performance, he could quickly enter the QB2 or even QB1 conversation.

While this may seem like a quick rise, when comparing them next to each other (and even after Texas’ win over Ole Miss), it is hard to logically make the argument for Arch Manning over Leavitt: Leavitt is younger, one of the only QBs in this class who is a better rusher, and while he could return like Manning to be a member of the 2028 NFL Draft, Leavitt did have an almost-full Season in 2024 and played several games in 2025 even if he missed quite a few with injury, so Leavitt is a fairly experienced QB. Leavitt isn’t quite as big as Manning (6’ 2”, 207 lbs) but he’s certainly well built and might have the better pure arm between the pair.

Leavitt will make a significant rise in both my Mock Draft (see: Substack/Podcast) and during Thursday’s Sorsby Line segment which will focus primarily on Sam Leavitt this week.

Jackson Harris, WR, LSU via Hawaii

After making the positional risers last week, Jackson Harris is the biggest Riser this week after a phenomenal game with 9 Receptions, 178 Yards, & 2 TDs, including 7 / 139 / 2 in just the First Half as well as just missing a toe drag on what could have been a contender for Catch of the Season at the end of the game. A 6’ 2”, 205 lb WR who “looks the part,” Harris could wind up a Top 50-75 pick if he continues at this level. While Auburn has not been the best SEC team defensively, as the Substack/Podcast covered last week, Harris has been on an absolute tear recently, with this latest game adding up to 27 Receptions, 480 Yards, & 7 TDs in his last 4 Gs against SEC competition...

Early production will be at least an “orange flag” for Harris, with 6 Receptions for 86 Yards combined in his first two seasons with Stanford before transferring to Hawaii and having a breakout 3rd Season with 49 Receptions, 963 Yards, & 12 TDs in essentially 10 Gs. However, between his Size & Track Background, Harris will offer a size-speed outside skill-set that is often coveted highly by NFL Teams. Harris did not quite make the 2-Round Mock Draft, but he could absolutely be in the conversation for next week’s 2-Round 1QB Mock.

LSU has their BYE this upcoming week, but after that everything gets put to the test: LSU’s next three opponents are a gauntlet of Alabama, Texas, & Tennessee.

Positional Risers of the Week

Dilin Jones, RB, LSU via Wisconsin ; Dylan Riley, RB, Boise State

...

The growing gap between Power Conference & Group Conference Rosters in general will probably make it harder and harder to properly evaluate players in lower conferences, but Dylan Riley easily deserves to be considered the top player in the Group Conferences in this year’s Draft Class. Riley was mostly bottled up against a much more talented Oregon roster, producing only 17 Carries for 50 Yards the first week of the Season, but since that game, he has at least 93 Yards in each game and 128+ Rushing Yards in 5 of the last 6. Those games did ALL come against Group Conference competition, but now 7 Gs into the Season, Riley has 140 Carries, 968 Yards, & 8 TDs, and with over 1,100 Rushing Yards in 2025, Riley now has 2,000+ Rushing Yards in his last 1.5 Seasons. While not the biggest RB, Riley does have a compact build at 5’ 10”, 203 lbs, but between non-elite physicality and the level of competition, Riley remains an Honorable Mention for the Mock Draft.

Justin Bowick, WR, Oklahoma State via Illinois & Joseph Williams, WR, Colorado

Kari Ashley, TE, TCU

Returning to Play Risers

Fluff Bothwell, RB, Mississippi State ; Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU… Ahmad Hardy?

Faller of the Week

Injuries in the 2027 RB Class

There has not been one of these “Category Faller” Sections on the show so far this year, but the biggest frustration watching College Football this weekend wasn’t one player or even a group of players this week; it is the collective injuries that do threaten the depth of the 2027 RB Class as many could consider returning to college not just because of NIL but 5-for-5 as well.

Kewan Lacy would be the Injury Faller of the Week this week if only one had been identified, as after his best game of the season, Lacy was ineffective against Texas and eventually left this game due to injury. Hollywood Smothers had missed time earlier this season, and would miss once again this week against Ole Miss. Smothers has only 65 Carries for 289 Yards while dealing with injury so far this season. And that’s nothing compared to Nate Frazier, who has 35 Carries for 230 Yards so far this season. Frazier in particular has the physical toolkit to rise Draft Rankings very, very quickly, but he needs to get healthy in order to do so. Frazier is coming off a BYE this week...

This is still a talented RB Class as showcased by the 5 Ranked RBs and 7 Honorable Mention RBs in this week’s SF Mock Draft, but the 2027 RB Class has suffered from lack of being able to play throughout the 2026 CFB Season.

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Full Write-Up: https://cjfreel.substack.com/p/new-qb-contender-emerges-jackson

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Questions & Comments welcome,

C.J.

We are nearing the halfway point of the 2025-26 season, and with injuries piling up, dynasty managers may be forced to cut some underperforming players.

While managers may have wanted to stash these assets in hopes they turn the corner, the clock is ticking, and their seat is getting hot.

Should managers continue to stash Isaiah Davis, Kayshon Boutte, Kaleb Johnson, Jalen Nailor, Gunnar Helm, and Tua Tagovailoa?

I’m fairly new to dynasty - this is year four - and I’m curious about how people manage amassing tons of picks v their actual roster.

We have a pretty healthy bench, IMO, 13 slots plus a 4 spot rookie taxi squad and 3 IR, and our normal draft is 4 rounds - but we’re already seeing cases, and for me personally the last two years, where it feels like dealing for future picks is almost wasteful?

In our startup draft, I prioritized younger players over win-now, so while sure I have a couple fringe roster guys, I don’t have THAT many (I’m also more into college than my league mates and I’d argue that’s given me an edge in drafting), so on the occasions I’ve wound up with more than four draft picks (and be able to taxi all of them), it’s led to me scalping picks for really whatever I can get so I don’t just draft guys that might not make it to my wk1.

How do people view their roster construction when I see things like “I have 5 1sts next year”? We’re a smaller league, 10tm, so that probably skews us more to having more usable people on our bench, but I feel like I’m still missing perspective other than to just treat it as “better to have a wildcard that could become a WR2 than to keep a known WR3-4”?

Full Mock Breakdown - https://www.dynastynerds.com/mock/2027-1qb-rookie-mock-draft-3-0/

Who do you think is too high and too low!? Yes, some players may be higher as we had to build a team.

This is a request…

I cannot stand how sleeper shows draft recaps on mobile. At least on an iPhone, you seem to have to scroll left to right for every round of a rookie draft recap.

I want to see them all on one screen at once. Even better I’d love to see metrics/grades/ratings on how managers in my leagues have drafted.

I have about 30 of these random tools that have been shared on this sub, but I am not aware of any that summarize past drafts like this.

Anyone aware of one?

Finished last season as WR 12 in PPR. His 2026 campaign got off to a slow start, but he’s been heating back up. Jamo is 25.8 years old, and on a team that puts up points (albeit in a crowded fantasy room). What are we doing with Jamo as contenders and rebuilders? He almost feels like a hold in both cases.

Welcome back to the weekly trade roundup. Over the last 7 days DynastyDealer tracked 85,316 completed dynasty trades across 170,474 active leagues.

That's down about 11% from last week's 95,679 and a little above the 82,198 from two weeks ago.

Ollie Gordon is the new No. 1 at 2,264 trades, up from ninth. Gordon's share of all dynasty trades built steadily through the week instead of spiking on one day, and the Value Trend is fair value, above market in 46%. Gordon is the most-traded player in redraft leagues this week too.

The bigger story is quarterbacks. Four are new to the top 10: Tanner McKee, J.J. McCarthy, Jalen Hurts and Aaron Rodgers, and three of the four are going below market. Philadelphia has two of them, with McKee below market in 74% of trades and Hurts in 66%. Rodgers is at 60%.

McCarthy is the exception at fair value, and the jump was sudden: 34 trades on October 17, then more than 400 on both October 21 and 22. The other Giants quarterback, Jaxson Dart, is on the buy-low board at 69% below market.

At the other end of the quarterback market, buyers are paying up for Trevor Lawrence (above market in 69%) and Jordan Love (61%), both on the sell-high board.

New to the top 10: Josh Jacobs, Tanner McKee, Brian Thomas, J.J. McCarthy, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers.

Dropped out: Marvin Harrison, Rhamondre Stevenson, Omarion Hampton, Mike Evans, Bhayshul Tuten, Jaylen Warren. Harrison falls out entirely after two weeks at No. 1.

Last week nobody in the top 10 was a buy-low. This week four are: McKee, Hurts, Brian Thomas (61%) and Rodgers (60%).

Chuba Hubbard is Rising for the third straight week, above market in 62%, and is still the only player to post a Rising signal on this board since these started in June.

Top 10 most traded, last 7 days:

After three straight weeks with seven running backs, it's four running backs, four quarterbacks and two receivers.

Sell-high board, the players buyers are paying a premium for. Minimum 100 superflex trades, capped at 7,000 market value:

Buy-low board, the players being acquired at a discount most often. Minimum 100 superflex trades, 3,500 value and up:

Four of the ten buy-lows are tight ends: Harold Fannin, Kenyon Sadiq, Dalton Kincaid and Juwan Johnson. The rookie lean is still there but smaller, five 2026 rookies against seven last week, and every sell-high name is again a veteran in at least their fourth season. Six of last week's sell-high names are back, led by Christian McCaffrey at 73%.

Where this comes from. These are completed trades from real dynasty leagues, executed deals only, no mocks or projections, over the trailing 7 days. Trade counts cover all dynasty formats, which broke down this week as superflex standard-TE 33%, superflex plus TE premium 36%, 1QB standard-TE 27%, and 1QB plus TE premium 4%. Market Value is the superflex standard-TE dynasty consensus from our rankings page. The Value Trend is scored only on superflex standard-TE trades, about 28,300 of them this week, because that's the exact format those values represent. Scoring 1QB trades against superflex values would make quarterbacks look artificially cheap, so we don't.

One caveat on the sell-high board. Above roughly 7,000 value the above-market rate stops measuring sentiment and starts measuring package size, because elite players get bought with three or four pieces and the summed values overshoot. A commenter here caught that a few weeks back and the board has been capped since.

Value Trend just means we check whether the manager acquiring a player gave up more or less than that player's market value. Below market is a discount, above market is a premium. For reference, the typical player lands above market in roughly 40% of trades.

All data from DynastyDealer.com, also on iOS and Android.

Superflex Trade Calculator · Dynasty Trade Value Chart · Weekly Newsletter

Bryce Young's time to pressure faced by week, per @SumerSports:

* Wk 7: 2.42

* Wk 6: 2.54

* (Wk 5 bye)

* Wk 4: 2.58

A quick pressure is defined as under 2.5 seconds. That means Bryce averaged a quick pressure on every drop back in week 7. Prior to week 7 Bryce was second in the league in drop backs under pressure despite having an early bye - hes been pressured 83 times this season with another 16 added this week.

With Panthers RT getting ankle season injury and going out from the game except more pressure on Mr Young

I'm in a league that's existed for around two decades and which I've been in for 7 years. It's an odd format because of how long it's been around, but it's basically a keeper / dynasty hybrid where you can keep as many players as you want each season as long as they fit under a points cap, which is based on league scoring. Teams typically keep 6+ players and the draft is mostly rookies and bench players.

The league was on NFL.com for a long time with one ill-fated attempt to move to Sleeper a few years ago. NFL.com's shutdown automatically moved the league to ESPN. Trades and the points cap have always been managed in a spreadsheet / by the commissioner. Rule changes are typically voted on with at least one season notice given the format. Buy-in is $150.

Scoring for as long as I've been in the league has been half-ppr, 4 pt pass, fractional scoring for yards, 2 pts for rushing/receiving two point conversions, etc. The only non-typical part is bonus points for 40+ and 50+ yard touchdowns and the defense, which isn't relevant here.

A month ago I realized that all the league scores looked odd. There were no strange decimals; every team's score ended in .0 or .5. I realized that in the move to ESPN the league was no longer using fractional yards, instead it was accidentally set to 1 pt per 10 rushing/receiving yards and 1 pt per 25 passing yards.

On 9/27 I pointed this out to the co-commissioners and later explained that the settings were wrong for fractional scoring. Later that night one of them said "Do we not get points for 2 pt conversions?" and I said we should. He noted he should have two points for Waddle and I said I should have two for Lamb. One of them said the other should fix it.

On 10/15 I said "Hey, you still haven't fixed the scoring."

Last night at 9pm I said "CAN ONE OF THE COMMISSIONERS FIX THE SCORING?! Someone is going to lose because of it and then it will be drama."

Lo and behold my Dak/Ceedee team put up over 40 last night to close a big deficit. With the current scoring rules I lose 119 to 117.5. If the scoring was fixed to be consistent with the rules we've always played with (and never voted to change) then I win 125.78 to 124.62.

I believe this is the first result that would be flipped since there are a lot of blowouts, though I'm not certain.

The conversation after I pointed out I should have won:

Commish 1: Yeah I don’t want to be commissioner and make these decisions...I pass all decision making power to Commish 2

Me: I don’t think it’s a decision in this case. It’s just properly adding the scoring we’ve always played with and did not vote on changing.

Commish 1: Exactly, someone has to run a vote, tally the votes, change the standard settings that are already set up on espn.

Me: No, I’m saying there should be no vote. This is a clerical error. We switched platforms. We didn’t intentionally change all the rules

Commish 1: NFL.com switched the platform, not me.  You would think they would keep the rules, but if you think I was going to go in and check to see if every rule from NFL.com was carried over to ESPN, again, not a paid position. If espn uses different rules we need a paid commissioner, you could be the commissioner,  or just deal with the new rules.

Me: All that needs to be done right now is changing rushing and receiving to 0.1, passing to 0.04, and rushing and receiving 2 pt conversion = 2. Those are the rules we’ve always had. Espn will recalculate everything

Commish 2: Here’s my take. The commish made a mistake in not changing scoring to previous year settings. However, everyone in the league could see the scoring system several days before the start of the season and no one brought it up. Therefore, once the season starts, it is what it is for the whole year.

Me: No one looks at scoring before the season when there was no reason to believe the rules were changing. I brought this up in September

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That's where things stand as of now. What's the correct thing to do here?

I picked up Taylor off waivers this summer in a 10-team, TEP++++ league because I was pretty thin at TE and figured I had very little to lose.

The league starts 2 TEs and gives 1 TEP plus 1 point per TE first down.

I’ve had Taylor on my bench for the last two games, only to get a goose egg from Otton in my lineup this week.

What do you guys think Taylor’s long-term outlook is?

Whenever he plays, I think he looks damn good. He’s still young, and I always thought he had the potential to become a top-12 TE.

Then the Jets drafted Sadiq.

Do you think Taylor is only valuable in the short term, and that his target share will take a hit once Sadiq gets more integrated into the offense, potentially making Taylor droppable?

Or do you think Taylor could establish himself ahead of Sadiq and maintain a solid role in the offense?

With Cooper also starting to establish himself as a potential target earner, I’m curious how you guys see the target distribution in New York playing out long term.

Jonah Coleman seems to be moving into the workhorse back of the Denver offence. Although knowing Sean Payton, will he truly be able to be the guy? Probably not. Is he a buy, sell or hold right now? What would it take for you to move him with his current outlook? Harvey looks good too but I think has cemented himself as the receiving back.