I sold USDJPY then fell asleep from a nap

This one humbled me again so I figured I'd ask.

I run a 14 period RSI on daily EUR/USD (I use the ECB daily reference rates because they're easy to pull). It dipped under 30 around Sept 24, bounced a bit, then sat at or around 30 pretty much from Sept 29 to Oct 14. The low was about 20 on Oct 5.

Price during that stretch? Went from roughly 1.1355 down to about 1.118. If you bought every time RSI said oversold, you were catching a falling knife for two weeks straight.

Took me way too long to accept that oversold is a description, not a signal. It just means sellers have been in control. In a real trend that can last way longer than feels reasonable.

What I pay attention to now:

• Where RSI lives. In a downtrend it tends to hang between about 20 and 60, so a pop back to 55 or 60 tells me more than a dip to 25.
• Divergence, but only once price confirms it by closing above a recent swing high.
• The higher timeframe. If the weekly trend is still down, I don't get excited about a daily oversold print.

It's at about 35 now with price around 1.119, so still basically stuck in that zone.

Curious how people here use it. Do you treat 30 and 70 as actual levels, or mostly watch divergence? And does anyone use different thresholds for trending vs ranging pairs?

Hey guy it’s one more happy meal for Monday

Price got close to my stop loss and I convinced myself it was going to hit, so I closed the trade early. It never reached my SL. Instead, it bounced back and hit my original TP. What frustrates me is that I exited because I was scared of taking the full loss, not because my setup had changed. This trade happened to recover, and plenty won’t, but I want my exits to follow my plan rather than how nervous I feel in the moment. Anyone else struggle to leave a trade alone when price gets close to their stop?

Gold has been respecting the downside pretty consistently today.

What's interesting to me isn't the direction, it's how expensive it can be to trade a market like this if you're in and out several times a session.

A lot of traders focus on:

• Entries
• Indicators
• Win rate

But if you're actively trading XAUUSD, a few points difference in spread across dozens of trades can end up having a bigger impact on your monthly PnL than tweaking your strategy.

Serious question for gold traders:

Have you ever calculated how much you pay monthly in spreads and commissions on XAUUSD?

And if gold keeps trending like this, are you looking for continuation shorts or expecting a reversal?

Anyone else trading this?