This is merely the beginning of millions of job losses across most U.S. sectors. On one side, companies become more efficient; on the other, consumer spending declines. Remaining employees who can adapt to high output will thrive, and those managing agents will perform exceptionally well. The unemployed must retrain for new roles while the government covers long-term unemployment costs. Corporate taxes likely need to rise to fund this burden. Might widespread unrest follow?

The disruption will be severe and unlikely to proceed smoothly. We require fast-moving growth sectors. Perhaps renewable energy and electrification could fill part of the gap with a major government push.

​

Ni: Charles Nathaniel R. Castillo

FIL 101 | BSIS 3-04

Sa panahon ngayon, malaking tulong ang Artificial Intelligence o AI sa ating pang-araw-araw na buhay. Nagagamit natin ito sa pag-aaral, paghahanap ng impormasyon, at paggawa ng iba't ibang gawain. Sa pamamagitan ng AI, mas napapadali ang ilang bagay na dati ay nangangailangan ng mahabang oras at pagsisikap. Gayunpaman, mahalagang malaman natin kung paano ito gamitin nang tama upang maging kapaki-pakinabang sa ating sarili at sa ibang tao.

May tatlong pangunahing dahilan kung bakit nakatutulong ang AI sa atin. Una, nagagamit natin ito upang matuto ng mga bagay na hindi pa natin alam. Maaari tayong magtanong at humingi ng paliwanag upang mas maintindihan ang ating mga aralin. Ikalawa, nakatutulong ang AI upang makatipid tayo ng oras sa paggawa ng mga gawain. Halimbawa, maaari natin itong gamitin upang maghanap ng mga ideya at magplano ng mga proyekto. Ikatlo, maaari itong maging katuwang sa pag-aaral kung gagamitin natin ito upang mas mapalawak ang ating kaalaman.

Gayunpaman, may mga pagkakataong nagiging masama ang epekto ng AI kapag mali ang paggamit natin dito. Kung aasa tayo nang sobra sa AI, maaari tayong maging tamad at mawalan ng pagkakataong matutong mag-isip nang sarili. Hindi rin tama na kopyahin lamang ang lahat ng sagot nito at ipasa bilang sariling gawa. Bilang mga mag-aaral, dapat nating tandaan na ang AI ay isang kasangkapan lamang na tumutulong sa atin, hindi isang kapalit ng ating sariling kaalaman at pagsisikap.

Sa kabuuan, ang AI ay maaaring magkaroon ng mabuti o masamang epekto depende sa paraan ng paggamit natin dito. Kung gagamitin natin ito nang responsable, maaari itong makatulong sa ating pag-aaral at sa pag-unlad ng ating kakayahan. Kaya naman, gamitin natin ang AI para matuto, makatulong sa kapwa, at makagawa ng mabubuting bagay. Tandaan natin na ang tunay na layunin ng teknolohiya ay tulungan tayong umunlad, hindi alisin ang ating kakayahang mag-isip at kumilos nang sarili.

Many of us are vaguely aware that large sums are being spent, but the scale of the undertaking is astonishing:

• The six largest spenders this year are spending more on capital expenditures this year than the Russian government, governing 11 timezones and 143 million people, fighting a war on which the fate of its regime probably depends, spent last year. 
• Hyperscaler spending (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle) will be $785-820bn this year, about 2.4% of US GDP. There are only 11 governments on earth who spend more than that. Next year the Hyperscalers are projected to spend about $1.3 trillion dollars.
• Google and Amazon are each spending about 0.6% of US GDP. The Manhattan project and Apollo programme each accounted for about 0.4% of US GDP in their peak years of spending. Both of these companies has announced their intention to spend more next year.
• Google, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft are all investing in multiple nuclear power plants, each.
• Nvidia, Google and Sam Altman are investing in Fusion.
• SpaceX is seriously discussing space based data-centres. Google launched project suncatcher to test how their TPUs cope in space
• Data centres share of US peak summer demand is project to increase from 4.1% last year to 8.5% next year. Next year they will require 66GW of continuous draw, roughly equivalent to the electricity used by Germany in Wintertime. Germany uses 24GW minimum load in summer. They are projected to use 15-20% of current US electricity demand by 2030.
• Goldman Sachs predicts the increase in power demand for data centres from 2023 to 2030 will be the equivalent of adding another top ten power consuming country.
• Alongside various on-grid power plants, old and new, companies have turned to off the grid Gas power: gas pipelines are being re-routed to data centres, where they are fueling gas turbine generators. The backlog for demand for gas turbines from GE Vernova is equivalent to the electricity use of Japan, the fifth largest consumer of electricity in the world.
• Morgan Stanley predicts the US will be short of electricity by six New York Cities by 2028, and 18 New York Cities by 2029.

I think this effort signals a few key things about the beliefs of the decision makers:

• To recoup their spend, AI will soon have to generate far more revenue than it currently does, so they believe very powerful, very useful AI will be achieved.
• Most of the money is being spent on chips which have life spans of about 6 years, so they believe this will be achieved soon. 
• These beliefs are held strongly, not weakly. The companies are not placing small bets. They have burned through close to all of their free cash flow, have issued record setting corporate bonds in the US, UK, EU, Switzerland, Australia, Canada. They have spending commitments for beyond this year in the trillions of dollars. etc.

So what do we think? Singularity? Bubble? Both?

I've been slowly realizing over the past decade, despite anything that happens with the development of materials science and physics, that any future approximating anything remotely close to Star Trek (or even like The Expanse) will simply never happen because of the fundamental issue of human biology and psychology.

You will NEVER be able to trust a population with devices that have power densities approaching anything close to what you see in Star Trek. Humans are simply too stupid and unstable to be trusted with things that could obliterate entire city blocks if weaponized.

Then I wondered what it would actually take to achieve such a future and it seems even more grim:

- Complete control over social hierarchy (who gets access), including forms of social Darwinism on a scale never seen before that would make Gattica look like a day care. Those at the top cannot be relied upon to hold that much power without corruption and psychosis of some form or another setting in eventually. Hierarchy, control, and self-preservation of these structures almost always leads to corruption and abuse, which in turn causes social turmoil and radicalizes some.

- A surveillance state that makes 1984 and today's world look like pretechnological times. Scanning technologies would have to be incredibly invasive. I'm thinking deep brain scans to monitor people's cognitive states and intentions, if even possible. We would also need to find a way to detect, change, weed out, or otherwise heal personality traits that drift towards things like Machiavellianism, however, this shifts back to how would we make that apply to those at the top making the decisions who very likely score high in those traits; it's like a snake eating it's own tail.

- Genetic engineering to weed out various levels of predisposition to neuroticism, depression, aggression, ect... Even this doesn't cut it because of the nurture problem and fragility of human brains. Psychologically normal people have and do commit atrocities when pushed too far; they even become more effective at it.

This led me to read some of Nick Bostrom's comments about the "vulnerable world" problem and how you need your percentage of your population who's careless or malicious to essentially be zero in a future where one person could easily kill thousands or millions of people.

I don't know, I think we're fundamentally screwed on all fronts. Anyone have some material out there they can recommend that is.... more hopeful?

😱My students sent experiments to ISS . I’ll 😪.
The NASA AND PBS covered the launch and it was one of the fondest memories the students and I will cherish.

All activities in space today are governed by Earth. As our plans and descendants take us further into the solar system, reliance on Earth will shift; time and space impeding our home planet’s influence. What governments will form in our solar system, and for how long?

These outpost worlds will not necessarily have abundance in resources or democracy; coups can install a new dictator as easily as remove one. Earth will dominate politics for many decades on the worlds of Mercury, Venus, and Mars. As we settle deeper in the solar system, the burdens of time and space will hinder governance in due course.

The fall of an Earthly empire may be signalled by a barren stellar trade route, and a new momentary King of Neptune.

Kings of Neptune - by Max King - Forwards From A Futurist

Hace casi un siglo ya se imaginaba un futuro en el que el progreso tecnológico nos daría mucho más tiempo libre. Hoy, con la automatización y la inteligencia artificial, la pregunta sigue siendo relevante.

Este video de Ruta de Ciencia plantea una cuestión interesante sobre la relación entre tecnología, productividad y nuestra vida cotidiana:

Me parece un buen tema para debatir: ¿creen que los avances tecnológicos terminarán reduciendo nuestra jornada laboral?

About the author

Robert R. Colee is an inventor, entrepreneur, Air Force veteran, and lifelong researcher with a passion for exploring the future of technology and humanity. As founder of Global Robotics Corporation, he writes about artificial intelligence, robotics, engineering, space exploration, sustainable living, economics, history, and the ideas that connect them. His books combine practical knowledge, thoughtful research, and imaginative storytelling to inspire curiosity, innovation, and constructive solutions to real-world challenges. Whether examining ancient mysteries, emerging technologies, or visions of tomorrow, Robert encourages readers to think critically, ask bold questions, and help build a more peaceful, prosperous, and cooperative future.

"One Sky. Many Worlds. One Family. Many Friends. One Peace. One Life."

Amazon.com: Robert Colee: books, biography, latest update https://www.amazon.com/author/robertcolee

If humanity eventually gains access to effectively unlimited physical resources, what becomes the most valuable thing in existence?

Knowledge?

Creativity?

Attention?

Trust?

Time?

Curious to hear what people think is truly scarce in a future of abundance.