Key Insights:

Hypergrowth. Revenue was $16.3B in H1 2026 vs $1.2B a year earlier, after $4.6B in all of 2025. That is about 14x.

Compute efficiency is improving. Compute and infrastructure spend was about 55% of revenue in H1 2026, down from about 201% a year earlier. In Q2, revenue grew 1,368% year over year while compute costs grew 300%.

Adjusted profitability. Adjusted operating income was $1.6B, a 10% margin. Note that this excludes about $2.2B of stock compensation. The GAAP operating loss was $693M, a 4% negative margin, which is still a big improvement from 2025.

The $80.7B net loss is mostly an accounting item. About $72.4B is a non-cash fair value change on convertible notes, driven by the company's rising valuation.

Big cash cushion. Cash and short-term investments were $131.7B at June 30.

Strong customer traction. Over 11,900 customers spend $100K or more a year, about 250 spend $10M or more, and revenue per employee is above $6.6M. The company says enterprise adoption is driven by products like Claude Code and Claude Cowork.

Other information:

Compute commitments. Press reports put them in the hundreds of billions. Fortune counts $657B across eight deals, $498B of it noncancelable. Another analysis cites $265.6B of fixed purchase commitments plus $321.4B of leases not yet started. The S-1 says commitments run through 2045.

Capex will likely rise. Fortune reports H1 capex of only $482M, but Anthropic is shifting toward buying chips for dedicated data centers. Buying chips is far more capital intensive than leasing.

Valuation. Press reports say $1.8T to $2.0T.

Spending on growth. Sales and marketing rose from 12.4% to 19.5% of revenue, the fastest-growing cost line.

Customer concentration. Reports say nearly a quarter of last year's revenue came from the top five customers.

Governance. A single Class F share held by the seven co-founders carries 50.1% of the vote, and a Long-Term Benefit Trust elects a majority of the board. Regular shareholders will have limited influence.

Dilution. 5% of fully diluted shares already went to the public benefit fund, and the board may issue up to 2% more each time the stock rises 50% above the prior milestone.

Growth may not last. The company itself warns that past growth rates are not indicative of future performance.

Takeaway:

The business looks excellent: very fast growth, improving compute efficiency, and a huge cash cushion. The question is price. At a reported \~$2T, you are betting that revenue keeps compounding fast enough to outrun a very large, hard-to-cancel compute bill.

Let me know your thoughts as even I am evaluating if it's worth investing big in Antropic IPO for a long term perspective.

Boeing fell 10.7% on Tuesday to $168.18, its worst day since June 2020. It missed on earnings (an adjusted loss of $0.34 a share vs $0.20 expected) and pushed back the 737 MAX production ramp. That leaves Boeing worth about $133B.

The MAX has only one engine option, the LEAP-1B, from CFM, a 50/50 venture of:

- GE Aerospace: ~$310B

- Safran: ~$130B

Over 3x Boeing between them. Even Airbus, its direct rival, is worth more, at about €152B.

Building planes is hard. Selling the engines, then the parts and servicing for 30 years, apparently less so.

Plane or engine?

There is a lot to cover today, with several major earnings reports, the Fed decision, and important developments across the broader market. As a result, today's write-up is a bit longer than usual, but I'll try to keep it focused on what matters most. I've also included a TL;DR at the end

I'll start with SK hynix's earnings, which add another piece to the AI infrastructure story and reinforce my view that the investment cycle could extend into 2031.

The company reported operating profit of 83.3 trillion won ($62.5 billion), more than seven times last year's level and over 7% above expectations and also announced an additional $45 billion in shareholder returns, while confirming that its DRAM and high-bandwidth memory production is effectively sold out through 2029, with shortages expected to persist into 2030.

What I find v important is the outlook for infrastructure spending as according to estimates cited by SK hynix, global cloud service provider CapEx is projected to increase by more than 60% in 2027, while secured power capacity could more than double year over year. Beyond that, the AI data center infrastructure market is expected to grow at roughly 40% annually through 2030.

These are not numbers I would associate with an investment cycle nearing exhaustion.

Turning to the broader market, we're also starting to see some improvements beneath the surface. The Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index is beginning to turn bullish, meaning that market breadth is improving.

Volatility in the Treasury market is also starting to calm down as you can see from the MOVE index )VIX of bonds). Do note it's still elevated so we're not out of the woods yet

Another development worth noting is that hyperscalers and memory stocks are moving together again, reversing the negative correlation we saw previously.

This is constructive for the AI trade as higher memory prices were previously viewed as a margin headwind for hyperscalers, even as they benefited memory producers. Now, with both groups advancing, the market appears more comfortable rewarding both sides of the AI infrastructure trade.

That suggests the AI trade may be broadening as well

Speaking of correlations, the next two days could also bring an important change in options positioning.

Once we get through the major earnings reports on Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty around individual stocks should ease, bringing single-stock implied volatility lower.

If that hpens while the VIX remains relatively stable, implied correlation could rise, as the options market prices less company-specific risk relative to broader index risk, leaving us with the midterms to clear

For now, despite yesterday's volatility crush, I'm not seeing a convincing shift toward a lower-volatility regime as the two main events that could change that are the Fed decision today and the upcoming earnings reports until the end of the week.

And looking at what the options market is pricing, there is still plenty of room for large moves.

-Microsoft: ±4.8%

-Alphabet: ±5.7%

--Amazon: ±6.0%

-Intel: ±8.0%

Given the weight of these companies in the major indices, the swings could be large. .

If we look at the previous eight earnings reports, Microsoft exceeded its implied move five times, which is another reason not to underestimate the potential volatility around this week's results.

In terms of positioning, Microsoft is heading into earnings with a bullish setup.

The immediate support is at $525, and as long as the stock remains above that level, market-maker hedging flows should remain supportive. If earnings deliver a negative surprise and $525 breaks, $500 becomes the next important level where I would expect some mechanical support.

On the upside, $575 remains the main level

High-conviction options flow is also bullish

Alphabet's positioning is more neutral, with $300 acting as the main support and $360 as resistance.

The vol trigger sits at $315, making it an important level for the near-term reaction. A significant earnings disappointment could change the positioning picture quickly, particularly below the $280–290 area, where dealer exposure falls sharply.

High conviction options flow is bullish here as well

Prediction markets, however, remain rather divided on the outcomes of the major reports.

What's also interesting this season is that so far, the market has been unusually forgiving of earnings misses.

According to BofA, companies missing EPS estimates have actually outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.7 percentage points the following day, compared with an average underperformance of around 2 percentage points since 2000.

FactSet's figures show tha same as companies missing estimates have declined by just 0.4% around their reports, compared with a five-year average decline of 3.1%.

Earnings beats are receiving roughly normal rewards, while the average next-day stock move has fallen to 3.7%, compared with 5.3% in the second quarter.

Basically, investors have been much less aggressive in punishing disappointments than usual.

For the broader AI trade, the most important numbers over the next two days will be capital expenditure and how the hyperscalers' spending plans compare with current estimates and, more importantly, whether they support the longer-term infrastructure outlook discussed earlier.

Before we get those earnings however, we have the Fed decision today.

Markets are pricing less than a 10% probability of a rate hike at this meeting, but the probability of a December increase is around 80%. Prediction markets are even more confident in a hold today- only about a 5% probability to a hike.

The FedSpeak model is currently at its most hawkish level since April 2023, so while market expectations have tuned down, the tone remains restrictive

A while ago, Jackson Hole I tihnk, Warsh said he is watching the second derivative of ai capex to help with making his next call and that second derivative has likely peaked this year, so the market might be going into this meeting too hawkish. Basically If the biggest acceleration in AI infrastructure investment is already behind us, the additional economic stimulus coming from AI CapEx could gradually weaken and that could mean less incremental pressure on growth, resources and inflation than markets currently expect.

In terms of positioning , yesterday’s levels played out as expected - SPY tested 770, QQQ reclaimed 720, and SOXX broke above 500, with momentum accelerating after the breakout. I am trimming most exposure as that is a good practice when vol is expected to pick and and will reassess after the major events have passed.

SPY is likely to chop around 770 for now, with positioning improving but the market still vulnerable to sharp moves. Immediate support sits at 765, followed by the more significant level at 750. Below 773, market makers are likely to amplify price moves in either direction. Despite the improvement in positioning, today's options volume still leans toward puts, particularly around 755, so downside protection is still prioritized

QQQs show a similar picture with main resistance moved to 725 and also in negative vol regime. Volumes on 715 and 700, but overall much more balanced. 740 - 45 is likely to be the top if earnings and Fed come in better-than-expected

SOXX is improving as well with market makers stabilizing priec action . The first levels to watch are 530 and 550 after that with 500 remaining strong. Volumes are skewed towards calls, but given that there's two major catalysts today, caution is advised.

TL;DR

- AI investment cycle remains intact: SK hynix's earnings and infrastructure outlook support my view that AI spending could continue into 2031. Hyperscalers and memory stocks are moving together again, while improving market breadth and calmer bond volatility are constructive.

- Earnings- Microsoft, Alphabet (today), Amazon and Intel (tommorrow) face big earnings moves. The numbers to watch are hyperscaler CapEx plans and whether they support the longer-term AI infrastructure outlook.

- Fed decision -xpectations remain hawkish, and despite yesterday's volatility crush, I see little evidence of a sustained shift toward a lower-volatility regime. The Fed and earnings could still trigger moves.

- Positioning has improved, but caution is warranted -yesterday's levels played out as expected. I'm trimming most exposure ahead of the major catalysts and will reassess afterward.

- Levels: SPY is likely to consolidate around 770, with support at 765 and 750. QQQ faces resistance at 725, with 740–745 possible on positive developments. SOXX looks stronger above 500, with 530 and 550 the next levels to watch.

- Geopolitical risk remains with rports of a potential US military operation against Iran after the midterms add another layer of uncertainty.

My broader outlook remains constructive for AI, but with the Fed, major earnings and geopolitical risks converging, I expect volatility to remain elevated and prefer to reduce exposure until we have more clarity.

This is the operating cash flow against spending on property and equipment, the latest qtr each one reported. Meta, Amazon and Alphabet all spent more than they brought in. Microsoft is the only one of the 4 that covered it and by a lot.

The second chart shows how fast it happened, Alphabet's capex went from about half its operating cash flow to more than all of it in 2 qtrs and Meta's went from about 60% to just over 100%.

"They can afford it" only works if you count cash they already had or new financing because operations didn't cover it, which means the build out pays off only if revenue catches up. Alphabet and Microsoft report tonight and Amazon tomorrow so these will move.

This month in international markets saw significant volatility in Brazilian equities. EWZ, which tracks the MSCI Brazil GRTR USD index, surged +12.5% at the beginning of the month, as it priced in the probability of a Flavio Bolsonaro win after a strong showing in round one of the Brazilian elections. However, when the dust had settled, Lula unexpectedly came from behind, and the EWZ gave back all its gains and then some, with a -18.4% drop on Monday.

I wanted to figure out the investors viewed Bolsonaro as so much more market friendly. Curiously, I found that the Brazilian stock market did extremely well during Lula's two prior terms and the third current term and was slightly negative during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, the father of losing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro. In Brazil, the presidential terms are four years long and align neatly with the calendar year. This makes it really easy to track returns using the MSCI Brazil, which would be the gold standard anyway. All returns are gross returns using USD currency:

I certainly would not have expected the less market friendly candidate to outperform his counterpart (presumably with similar policies as his son) by such a drastic margin, even after eating that monster -18.4% single day drop this week. However, to be fair, Lula 1 was an incredible time for emerging markets, one which likely could not be reproduced again. And Bolsonaro's presidency coincided with the pandemic, which could have hampered returns.

To control for this, I compared the MSCI Brazil against several other benchmarks to which the country belongs. ACWI includes all countries, ACWI ex-USA is the international market excluding the USA, and emerging markets are the MSCI emerging markets. Additionally, while Brazil does not belong to the MSCI USA, MSCI World (a misnomer which means developed markets including USA), and MSCI World ex-USA (developed markets excluding USA), these are included for comparison. Brazil has trounced all of these benchmarks under Lula's presidency and badly lagged all of them under Jair Bolsonaro.

Terrestrial Energy recently announced a share repurchase program of up to $25 million, adding an interesting development to the advanced nuclear sector as valuations across the industry have come down significantly.

The program raises an interesting question about how emerging nuclear companies view their valuations and capital allocation opportunities. While these businesses require substantial capital to bring their reactor designs to commercial deployment, repurchasing shares can be attractive when management believes the market price is below the company's intrinsic value.

Of course, a buyback authorization doesn't guarantee the full amount will be spent, and the timing of Terrestrial Energy's program may also be relevant given the potential for shares held by early investors to become eligible for sale.

It will be interesting to see whether other companies in the SMR space consider similar programs as valuations reset. Oklo, for example, has billions in cash but also significant capital requirements ahead as it works toward commercial deployment.

Yesterday was fine. Today I woke up with this. No news. No articles found about this. Seems to be a huhe drop. 99% wiped? Are you kidding me? And not even gradually. All in pre market and now it’s even suspended. Can this be a bug? Is it a bug? All other major websites show the same info but not all acknowledge the suspension. I’m showing the 6M graph because 1D, 1W, 1M don’t show any data.

I'm a long-term holder of both Alphabet and Microsoft, and I'm not trading the print. Wednesday after the US close they both report, so I wanted to write down what I'm actually looking for, not the headline beat.

Alphabet

1. Cloud growth and whether the cloud margin is still expanding.
2. Whether Search revenue is holding up as AI answers show up more in results.
3. The spending guide for data centers, and whether free cash flow can still fund it.

Microsoft

1. Azure growth, and whether it sped up or slowed.
2. Any sign that capacity limits (the "we can't build fast enough" story) are easing.
3. How much they're planning to spend vs how much free cash flow they generate.

What would make me add: cloud staying strong and spending that still looks funded by the business itself.

What would make me just hold: a messy stock move on solid numbers.

What would worry me: cloud slowing while spending keeps rising, with no clear path for that spend to pay off.

Not advice, just my checklist. What are you watching?

Yesterday we got a decent bounce in AI stocks, and Anthropic’s S-1 gives some context for the scale of spending still ahead. The main takeaway from Anthropic’s S-1 is that token demand keeps growing, AI infrastructure is getting more expensive, and Anthropic has shown it can make money selling inference.

The funding numbers are $132 billion in cash, a potential $140 billion IPO, and $77 billion in committed funding from Google, Amazon and Broadcom. Add cash generated by a business growing rapidly, and the funding scenario puts roughly $400 billion within reach by the end of 2027.

That would give Anthropic some of the deepest pockets in AI outside Big Tech itself. As for the infrastructure trade, the point is straightforward - there is still massive capital behind the demand for compute.

Flows into equities also remain strong, as the JPMorgan memo below shows.

Yesterday I wrote about the unwind in the hedge fund VIP basket and the chart below gives another perspective: crowded hedge fund longs have been underperforming the equal-weight S&P 500, with a divergence similar to the one we saw in July.

Whether that gap closes remains to be seen, but it is still stretched even after yesterday’s AI rally.

We can see the same rotation in the S&P 500 excluding AI, which has outperformed the broader index by around 700 bps over the past three weeks. That is a substantial move in a short period.

The earlier history needs some context though as the AI trade only began gaining weight from around 2021, so the period before that is less useful for assessing the current divergence.

Tech positioning is also now consistent with growth of around 10%, compared with roughly 50% expected for Q3 and around 35% by the end of next year. So big gap here

This gap supports the constructive view on tech, provided earnings deliver. But the cost of capital still matters so FOMC remains a v imporntat catalyst, even with a hold widely expected.

This is all good and there is support for the market here, but the mechanical flow picture still leaves it vulnerable if selling resumes.

Another 5% decline could trigger approximately $225 billion of selling from index-options hedging, leveraged ETF rebalancing and volatility-control strategies. A 3% decline could generate around $134 billion of selling, while a 3% rally would produce just $23 billion of buying.

Basically a decline will generate considerably more selling than a comparable rally would generate buying.

Another trade that caught my attention in the high-conviction options flow was an $18.6 million purchase of February 2027 VIX 22 calls.

This is a convex volatility trade as the buyer risks the premium paid, while gains can accelerate if the relevant VIX futures move aggressively higher. It is consistent with protection against a volatility shock.

I read it as a defensive signal going into the Fed and it does not establish that a selloff is imminent, but is worth keeping in mind

CTAs offer little support for now either as the estimates suggest selling could accelerate after a decline of roughly 1.4% in SPY and 1.1% in QQQ. Meanwhile, projected buying in an upside scenario is broadly neutral.

So if the market starts moving lower, systematic flows will amplify the move. On the upside, there is much less help from that source especially given that the volatility regime is negative

There are also developmentsin the Middle East, with reports that Iran’s supreme leader has called for conditions to be met to end the war. The proposal that leaves Iran controlling passage and this will likely remain a major obstacle to an agreement with the US.

For today, I am watching whether SPY can build on yesterday’s rebound and reclaim lost ground. Earnings, equity inflows and the gap between tech positioning and expected growth remain supportive, while the Fed and the downside flow imbalance call for some patience.

Options market positioning has improved, supporting a move higher towards 770 on SPY, which remains the main upside resistance and is likely to be tested today. While put volume still dominates it does not prvoiude much clues. The near-term bias is bullish, with 770 the level to watch for a potential breakout.

QQQs are v similar in terms of positioning with a likely test of 720 today

SOXX is likely to test the 500 level, which remains the resistance. If that level breaks, and barring any external shocks, upside momentum could accelerate, opening the door for a more sustained move higher. Options market volumes indicate a pick up in calls on 510 and 520

TL;DR: Near-term bias is bullish, with SPY 770, QQQ 720 and SOXX 500 the upside tests. A break above 500 on SOXX could accelerate semiconductor momentum.

AI spending, strong equity inflows and the gap between tech positioning and earnings expectations support further recovery. But downside flows remain heavy: a 3% decline could trigger roughly $134bn in mechanical selling, versus just $23bn of buying on a similar rally. The Fed, earnings and Middle East developments remain the main catalysts.

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

​

If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

• How old are you? What country do you live in?
• Are you employed/making income? How much?
• What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
• What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
• What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
• What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
• Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
• And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .

Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!

The headline growth looks like something out of a fantasy novel: $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026 alone.

A year ago they were sitting at just $1.2B.

That is a crazy 12-month leap

Then fin twit starts screaming about the crater on the balance sheet: an $80.7 billion loss.

but most of that is just non-cash paper garbage - convertible notes that auto-mark to market and reclassify into common equity the second the company lists on an exchange.

IMO you can ignore it.

The real story is the plumbing.

Anthropic has now raised an eye-watering $141 billion.

On paper, they are the crown jewel of applied AI.
But look at where the cash is coming from - and where it goes 2 days later:

• Google, Amazon, and Broadcom have another $77 billion queued up, almost all of it tied to Anthropic consuming their infrastructure.
• The filing reveals Anthropic will route up to $120 billion over to SpaceX just to secure compute powered by Nvidia silicon.
• Zoom out, and Anthropic is pointing toward $750 billion in compute spend over the next few years.

Big Cloud gives Anthropic billions. ->

Anthropic takes those billions and hands them right back to Big Cloud to rent chips. ->

Big Cloud books surging datacenter revenue, the street awards them a higher multiple, and their stock rips. ->

Rinse, repeat.

The filing makes it impossible to see how much of that massive $16.3B top line is actual, organic enterprise spend from outside the tent, and how much of it is just those same cloud partners buying services back from Anthropic to juice their own ecosystem integrations.

When capital raises, revenue, and cogs are all swirling through the exact same three boardrooms, traditional valuation models break.

You arent just looking at a software business anymore; your looking at a sovereign-scale energy grid where the suppliers and the customers are the exact same people.

I'm staying out Microsoft until the reaction is in on Thursday and the reason is each of the last 8 reports beat the adjusted estimate but the stock only rose the next day after 3. The biggest beat which was about 10% in Oct 2025, fell 3% and the smallest, about 2% in Jan 2025, fell 6%. July was the only one that rose more than 10% so I would rather see the reaction than guess it.

Is anyone else waiting or are you in before the print?

Bloom Energy $BE und Lumentum Holdings $LITE haben sich gestern bemerkenswert stark gehalten und könnten sich damit als neue Leader im KI-Trade positionieren. Während andere Titel unter Druck standen, zeigten sie relative Stärke und sendeten ein klares Signal. Möglicherweise haben sie einen Bullish Engulfing ausgebildet, was die positive technische Ausgangslage zusätzlich untermauern würde.

EIDO/IDX offers an interesting opportunity to study Indonesia's equity market following its significant 2026 decline.

Its relatively low P/E could indicate attractive valuations, but banking concentration and currency risks require close examination.
For an investment decision, I would focus on three questions: whether Indonesian banks are undervalued, whether the rupiah is likely to stabilize, and whether the fund's earnings are sustainable.

Does current price of approximately $10.60/ $9.40 represents an attractive investment opportunity? If so, why? Need your views and perspectives. Thank you.

FQ1 2027 Key Numbers:

Revenue: $4.38B, up 55% YoY and 17% QoQ, vs about $4.14-4.16B expected

Gross margin: 57.8%, vs 43.9% a year ago

Operating margin: about 49%

EPS: $4.63, up about 161% YoY, vs about $4.08 expected

Operating cash flow: $1.60B

Free cash flow: $1.38B

Quarterly dividend raised 17% to $0.175 per share

The company also repurchased stock in the quarter

Segments and volumes

Cloud: $3.9B, 88% of revenue, up 54% YoY

Client: $320M, 7% of revenue, up 119% YoY

Exabytes shipped: 248, up 22% YoY and 8% QoQ

Average revenue per terabyte: about $17.67, up 28% YoY

Gross profit per terabyte: about $10.22 vs $6.01 a year ago, since cost per terabyte fell

Management said demand for high-capacity drives is broadening beyond hyperscalers to neo-cloud providers and AI frontier labs, and the new EPMR drive platform has begun ramping

Guidance (FQ2 2027)

Revenue: about $5.1B, up 66-72% YoY

Gross margin: 60-61% non-GAAP

EPS: $5.80 ± $0.20

Market reaction

The stock fell after the report despite the beat, following a selloff before earnings

Takeaways

Growth is about 22% volume and 28% price, so this quarter is as much a pricing story as a demand story. Storage supply is tight, and pricing power is what's lifting margins.

Margins moving from about 44% to 58% in a year is a huge reset, and guidance points to 60%+.

HDD is historically cyclical, so the key question is how long supply stays tight and whether pricing holds as capacity comes online.

Cloud is 88% of revenue, so a few hyperscalers drive results. Broadening to neo-cloud and AI labs reduces that dependence.

A falling stock on a beat suggests expectations were already high.

Things to watch:

Q2 guide ($5.1B and 60%+ margin), price per terabyte, and any capacity expansion commentary.

By providing prestige cosmetics, fragrances, skincare, and hair care products along with full-service salon experiences, ULTA holds a unique position in the retail space. With more than 1,500 brick-and-mortar stores, a mature digital e-commerce business, and an UTLA Beauty Rewards loyalty program with over 47 million active members, it's become the place to go for all things beauty.

Recent stock performance:

A disappointing earnings call in March triggered a 38% peak-to-trough sell-off which bottomed on 6/30. Since then, the stock has stealthily climbed back up within 15% of its previous ATH.

Historical holiday season performance:

The holiday season has traditionally been an excellent time for investors to hold ULTA in their portfolios. Over the past 10 years, investors who bought on the open on the first trading day in November and sold at the close on the last trading day of December would have been profitable 9 out those 10 years. Over the past 5 years, the same trade was profitable all 5 years with an average return of 17.06%

With strong upward momentum coming into the holiday season and a history of strong performance during that time, I believe this is an excellent time for investors to consider starting a new position or adding additional money to an existing position.

Disclaimer: I have a small position in ULTA and am considering adding more shares.

GOOGL has been a frustrating name to hold. Been holding since the last quarter selloff that seemed like a great entry around 354 and averaged down to about 347. With the sentiment around the AI BUBBLE BURST not helping the cause.

1. There are many stock with a LONG WAY to fall, won't name any names, but a majority of those companies don't have legs to stand on. They're inflated on hopes and prayers. When you look at GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT, their massive cashflow can absorb the spend. Investors panic selling over a marginally negative free cash flow seems counterproductive.

2. Stevie Wonder could see that we have a very lopsided market with AI leading the charge. However, looking at the dot-com bubble; yahoo had a PE 1062 PE at the top, CISCO at 472, etc. We're not seeing these sorts of ambitions priced into the companies that occupy the 'over-weight' portion of the market. The inflation report that sent the market into risk-off panic, would indicate that inflation will aid in paying down the debt of the hyper-scalers, thereby inflating the intrinsic value of share ownership.

3. Where do you see GOOGL post earnings? GOOGL breaks the Bollinger bands for the first time since the big Iran selloff.

Solid growth in H1 - 16.3Bn As compared to 2025 - 4.6 Bn..

Not so good is the fact that 25% of that revenue comes from just two whale customers.....and neither has a long-term contract. They could walk tomorrow.

The Burn: Operating margin is a brutal -49.4%, leading to an $8.06B operating loss after burning $9B on front-loaded infrastructure.

Gross margins at 44.4% META GM at 68% and Google GM at 61%

$450B in non-cancellable (well almost....we know how these contracts are) cloud commitments over the next decade ($111B to Google, $110B to AWS, $31B to MSFT) that they must pay even if nobody uses their models.

I'm encouraged by the direction of AI and the productivity benefits. Anthropic is a clear leader in the Enterprise space..

To me ...it makes sense to wait post the IPO Just like SpaceX allowed the opportunity post the froth disappeared by early Aug when SPCX price reached $105 (Edit: my average is $108.5).

Doesn't look as bad as you'd think. Excluding the accounting charges, they had an operating loss of $693 million for the first six months of the year.

On a cash flow basis, I would imagine they're in the green or at least pretty close.

One thing that i still want to look into is where their marketing budget. I recently got "credits" on my Claude account for $100 in api compute. I'm curious if that's subtractive from revenue or if they count that $100 as revenue and offset it by placing $100 in expenses in the SG&A line item. This would be one thing to look out for in regards to inflating revenue.