r/hurricane • u/Beach-Brews • Jun 28 '26
Hello r/Hurricane community,
The Subreddit rules have had an extreme makeover!
Previously, the subreddit had 13 rules that were long-worded and hard to follow. Based on feedback over the last year, the moderation team has worked to reduce this list from 13 down to 8.
Overall, things were restructured to try and reduce ambiguity or repetition. There may be some tweaks as things arise, but the overall "rules" have remained the same.
We are always welcoming of feedback and would love to hear what the community thinks of these updates! We are also planning on building a Feedback Survey soon, to ensure we as Mods are aligned with the community as a whole.
Stay safe this season,
r/Hurricane mods
r/hurricane • u/Beach-Brews • Oct 05 '25
Hello r/Hurricane community,
<TL;DR> There appears to be polarized disagreement on subreddit rules/objectives. The intention of this subreddit has always been for serious (non-joking), non-political, serious (non-sarcastic), mature, and factual discussions around Tropical Cyclone formation, forecasting, questions/learning, guidance, and post-storm relief. Exceptions allowed, as long as it is appropriate and not overwhelming/overshadowing actual discussions. Community input welcomed. May have more focused discussion posts if needed.
Over the past week+ tracking Humberto and Imelda, there has been a tremendous amount of rule-breaking behavior. We have received numerous comment reports, a few mod-mails, and have seen multiple comments unhappy with rule breaking content (primarily with joking/inappropriate behavior, especially during an active storm). On the inverse side, most post/comment removals expressed extreme disapproval.
It is apparent there is major division between members/contributors of the sub.
This is making moderation difficult and exhausting, especially during times of peak activity (i.e. active storms). The mods are humans, and will get things wrong. Each decision to remove a post/comment is difficult, and not something we take lightly.
To make things easier and allow us to more accurately moderate, we want to "open the floor" for discussing this separation. Our goal is to help reunite the community and make moderating more fair/clear.
The number of subscribed members of r/Hurricane is nearly x2.5 the membership before Helene last year. A week before Helene, there was 35k members, and three weeks after it was 65k. The sub is now at nearly 85k.
To the new members welcome! However, please also understand that this subreddit is not like most others. We have always had strict rules because of the seriousness hurricanes can bring. Sarcastic comments, politics, and joking behavior is inappropriate during an active storm situation (from high chance formation to storm dissipation), especially if there are impacts to land anywhere. Most of the members are U.S. based, but there are others who do live/monitor the sub, watching for impacts in the Caribbean, Mexico, Bermuda, etc.
While we understand there is benefit to "laughing about the situation" to lighten the mood, it can also be detrimental if the joking, off-topic, and sarcastic comments overshadow the serious discussions. A few joke comment threads are one thing, but when there are only 1 or 2 comment threads actually discussing the post and 10+ others unrelated, the purpose of this sub is lost. For this reason, we have temporarily disabled GIPHY images in comments for the remainder of the Hurricane season.
You may have also noticed the sidebar now contains a "rule summary" along with an even shorter summary as "post/comment guides." There is also a link to the Subreddit Rules Wiki page.
We know the community will never be 100% in agreement on some things, but the mods do value the opinion of the community in order to act in the best interest of the community. We want to find the right balance: not too serious where no jokes can be made, not too many jokes where factual discussion is lost.
Please let us know your thoughts in the comments. Note my comment below with a few "common removals".
Thanks,
r/hurricane mod team
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 12h ago
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 5h ago
r/hurricane • u/Beach-Brews • 1d ago
Current Central Pacific ACE is 108.1, but unlikely to surpass the 2015 record of 127.3.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 2d ago
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 3d ago
The intensity forecast is a low confidence roller coaster ride. The eye of Vance is moving over a pool of water featuring both colder sea surface temperatures (near 27C) and reduced oceanic heat content. This should soon bring the current intensification to a halt, although the intensity forecast calls for Vance to become a major hurricane before that happens. The center will be near or over the cold pool through 48 h, and during this time southwesterly vertical shear should increase over the hurricane. This combination should cause weakening, and it is possible that Vance could weaken more than forecast during this period.
After 48 h, Vance should move north of the cold pool, and the official forecast at that time calls for some re-intensification, following the scenario shown by the HAFS models. By 96-120 h, an additional increase in shear and possible land interaction should cause the hurricane to weaken yet again. As noted in the previous advisory, a track to the right of the forecast track will keep the center over the colder water for a longer time, while a track to the left would reduce how much time the center spends over the cold pool.
r/hurricane • u/Apprehensive_Cut2880 • 3d ago
On this day 11 years ago, Hurricane Patricia hit peak winds of a staggering 185 knots (215 mph) and a central pressure of 872 mb. The pressure was likely lower than 870 mb, the record held by Typhoon Tip, but recon missed the peak intensity of the storm, finding 180 kt winds and a central pressure of 879 mb before the structure dramatically improved.
r/hurricane • u/Vegetable-Section-84 • 3d ago
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 3d ago
The next name in the Western Pacific is "In-fa," contributed by Macau (China), which is Cantonese for "Fireworks."
An appropriate name for a potentially violent typhoon, compared to all the names on the list which refer to species of flowers.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 3d ago
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 102.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 10.9N 102.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 11.5N 102.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 12.4N 103.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 13.4N 103.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 14.5N 103.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 15.6N 104.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 16.4N 104.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 17.0N 104.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 17.8N 104.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 3d ago
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 4d ago
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 4d ago
[JTWC Bulletin](https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2926web.txt
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220000Z IS 940 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 48 FEET.
Currently in the middle of an eye-wall replacement cycle.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 5d ago
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 69.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 37.4N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
12H 22/0600Z 38.1N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
24H 22/1800Z 39.6N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 41.4N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/0600Z 44.1N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z 44.4N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/1800Z 43.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Discussion, excerpt:
The non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have been monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm. Scatterometer data showed that fronts near the cyclone had dissipated, with a smaller radius-of-maximum wind than yesterday. Additionally moderate-to-deep convection has been organizing near and west of the warm-core center. Thus, advisories have been initiated on a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the initial intensity based on the scatterometer data.... The subtropical storm will likely intensify during the next day or so through a favorable trough interaction while it remains near the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Global models are in good agreement on a band of hurricane-force winds developing tomorrow on the back side of the low as it undergoes extratropical transition. A slow weakening is anticipated by late Friday with the loss of forcing from the trough while the system moves over cold water. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the GFS/ECMWF global model solutions. The cyclone should become absorbed in about 4 days within a much larger low over the North Atlantic.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 5d ago
Keep on pushing that ACE record up!
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 5d ago
If the forecast verifies, Vance would become the sixth consecutively named system in the Eastern Pacific to become a major hurricane, and the 11th major hurricane of the 2026 EPAC season.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 5d ago
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
340 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
For the North Atlantic:
Special Outlook issued to raise formation probabilities for AL93
1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93):
Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better
organized in association with a storm-force low pressure area
located a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic United States
coast. The system has continued to acquire subtropical
characteristics today and has become separated from fronts. If
these trends continue, a subtropical storm could form later this
afternoon or tonight while it accelerates northeastward.
Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal
flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the
U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information,
including hurricane-force extratropical wind warnings, please
consult statements and warnings from local National Weather
Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with
the High Seas Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
2. Subtropical Central Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of
this system is possible during the next day or two while it
moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become too strong for further development by
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Forecaster Blake/Reinhart
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 5d ago
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
For the North Atlantic:
1. Offshore of the East Coast of the United States (AL93):
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred
miles off the mid-Atlantic United States coast has acquired some
some subtropical characteristics since yesterday, including some
organized thunderstorm activity and less defined frontal features
near the center. This system has the potential to become a
subtropical storm tonight or early Thursday as it accelerates to
the northeast before upper-level winds and water temperatures
become unfavorable for further development on Friday.
Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal
flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the
U.S. East Coast during the next few days. For more information,
including hurricane-force extratropical wind warnings, please
consult statements and warnings from local National Weather
Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with
the High Seas Forecasts and the Storm Warnings issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
2. Subtropical Central Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of
this system is possible during the next day or two while it
moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become too strong for further development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Forecaster Blake
r/hurricane • u/Financial-Arm-6233 • 5d ago
r/hurricane • u/JustaCrafted • 6d ago
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 5d ago
r/hurricane • u/Least-Animator-8550 • 6d ago
It's probably even stronger, potentially 160kt (185 mph) with a sub 900 pressure.
r/hurricane • u/BridgeOk6737 • 5d ago
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I left the Blue Ridge Mountains and as I entered North Georgia early evening I saw this fascinating crimson sky. Hurricane Isaias was probably 12 hours away.
r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 6d ago
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026
For the North Atlantic:
1. Off the East Coast of the United States (AL93):
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred
miles off the North Carolina coast is producing some shower and
thunderstorm activity primarily west of its center. However,
overnight satellite wind data indicated the low was still attached
to an occluded front. Over the next couple of days, the low could
develop some organized deep convection and gradually lose its
frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the
Gulf Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical
characteristics. By the end of the week, the system is expected to
accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States,
where environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for additional subtropical or tropical development.
Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal
flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S.
East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please
consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service
offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with High Seas
Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Forecaster Papin