r/options • • 36m ago

Hot take: Most “juicy premium” this week is just earnings risk in disguise.

• Upvotes

Ran my screen last night looking for the best premium to sell this week. 9 of the top 10 had earnings before expiry.

That's not a coincidence. The contracts with earnings in the window paid about 2.1% of collateral. The ones without paid about 1.6%. The extra premium isn't free money, it's the market paying you to sit through the report.

Nothing wrong with selling into earnings if you mean to. But a lot of people see the fat number, sell it, and only find out about the report when the stock gaps 12% overnight.

So my rule this week is if I can't find the earnings date, I'm not selling it.

Prove me wrong. Is there a reason to sell through earnings I'm not seeing, or is everyone just chasing the bigger number?


r/options • • 1h ago

Are these options worth 14k or worth nothing

Post image
• Upvotes

I have 15 of these contracts. I bought them before a stock split in the summer, the first time I've dealt with that in options. The deliverable says 21 SOXS (plus some cash), which would mean I'm at roughly $14,175 (15 x 21 x $45 stock price), minus the $3,000 to exercise the options, puts me well into the money? I realize a lot can happen in the next 14 months, it's just odd seeing this in my brokerage summary everyday listed as basically worthless (<$100). I'm assuming that's because nobody's trading them?


r/options • • 16h ago

Fractional options?

4 Upvotes

There's a 6-year-old thread asking why no broker offers fractional options, and it still comes up first when you search for it. Most of the answers boil down to "it's hard." Well, fractional options are here now, in 2026. I've spent a lot of time researching how this is even possible and wanted to share my findings - and I'm curious whether your thinking has changed, too.

It all started when I read a paper on fractional options that got a few hits in this subreddit, and it sent me down a rabbit hole on why one contract is 100 shares. I mean, this has already been changed (for the better) via Robinhood. But why not options?? The more I read, the weirder it seems. I've been a lurker for a long time on a different account but it's now time to post my findings publicly haha.

The 100-share contract dates back to 1973, when stock traded in round lots of 100. Stocks moved on from that a long time ago, since you can buy $5 of SPY on basically any app now. Options never did. So with SPY around $750, one cash-secured put ties up about $75k. If you have a $10k account, the "boring" premium strategies everyone says to start with just aren't available unless you go on margin.

Which is backwards, right?!? The safer trades need the biggest account, so small accounts end up buying 0DTE lottery tickets because that's what they can afford. Then everyone says options are gambling or say "you're too broke" for options. Genuinely wondering why we ever settled for less.

Smaller contracts have ALREADY been tried, and they have FAILED big time. Mini options at 10 shares came out around 2013 and quietly died. XSP exists, but it's still a big contract and the liquidity on anything that isn't near the money is meh. I don't think any of the big exchanges have made an effort to address liquidity issues either. The volume just never showed up. A month after launch, Apple minis were about 2% of regular Apple options volume, and the exchanges had delisted them all by the end of 2014.

From the paper - the thing that stuck with me is that the 100-share unit isn't a law of nature. It's a leftover. The paper lays out how options could work at 1x: one contract per share, cash-settled at expiry so no shares change hands, European-style so there's no early assignment, and sized in dollars instead of in 100-share chunks. Once you see it written down, it's hard to unsee how much of options culture is built around a 1973 default.

My guess on what fractional options actually changes:

  • You could size by dollars instead of by contract. Risking 1% on a $5k account would really be 1%, not "one contract and pray"
  • Selling puts and covered calls would finally be available to people without $50k+ sitting in cash
  • Small accounts could build spreads that make sense, instead of getting forced into far OTM strikes just bc those are cheap
  • Learning would get cheaper. Getting your teeth kicked in by IV crush on a $20 position is a much better teacher than doing it on $2,000... and I don't want to see anyone losing their whole port if they're not ShaneStoffer/the Togi influencer on fintwt hahaha

Now that they exist, here's what you'd need to wrap your head around:

  • No early exercise. You hold it to expiry or close it
  • No shares ever, meaning there's no wheel and no getting assigned.
  • Liquidity on anything new is the real question. This killed the previous iterations and we'll have to see major change in retail now too
  • Small size doesn't mean small risk per dollar. It can still go to zero the same way

I've traded options for a while but always have a few friends who would be starting off from ground zero. A few areas where I'm skeptical:

  • Who's on the other side? Market makers hedge in shares. If I buy 0.05 of a contract, somebody still has to hedge that, and I'm not convinced the spreads stay tight.
  • Settlement- because cash settlement solves the delivery problem, but it's a different product from what most people are used to, and I'm not sure how many people will actually like that trade-off
  • Gamification. Making options accessible to everyone could just mean more people blowing up at $10 a pop. Some people actually DO need to be protected by that 100 share minimum...

So for people who've been trading a while: is the 100-share contract a feature or a bug? Now that fractional options are on SPY/QQQ, does this change your strategy? And if you've never done options before, are you trying them now?


r/options • • 1d ago

I’m building a free forecasting game for traders – would you play it? Honest feedback wanted

Post image
0 Upvotes

I'm working on a small side project. We’re building a competition game for traders: you forecast where SPY (or QQQ, VIX, GLD…) will close on each of the next 4 Fridays: a point forecast plus a range for each. You can update your forecasts any trading day; if you don’t, your last forecast simply carries on. You’re scored against the other players: being close counts, and so does a tight range. A wide range is “safe” but costs points. There are leaderboards, teams (e.g. your trading group or uni club), and prizes (Cash, Merch, Subscriptions) to win. Its free to play.

Four questions:

  1. Forecasting the next 4 Fridays and updating whenever you like: would you set it and check in now and then, update often, or is it too much? What would stop you from playing?
  2. Point forecast + range: clear and fun, or would a simple up/down pick get you in faster?
  3. What would keep you playing after the first month: the prizes, beating friends or your community, or seeing how good your forecasts really are?
  4. We’re also thinking about a portfolio league: you build a virtual stock portfolio (with options overlays like covered calls or protective puts allowed) and compete on risk-adjusted returns, so going all-in on one meme stock doesn’t automatically win. Would you prefer that over the price forecasts, play both, or neither?

Screenshot below. Not selling anything... I want to know whether this is fun or pointless before we push it. Thank you!! :)


r/options • • 1d ago

Binary options anyone?

1 Upvotes

Anyone trading the Schwab S&P Binary option XSPBX? What is your thought process as to how to trade it? If you think you know what the top and bottom for the day is, I think there are better ways to trade that. What's the advantage of trading the binary option?


r/options • • 1d ago

Does anyone just buy straight pits and calls

19 Upvotes

Does anyone just buy straight puts and calls? It seems like any sort of profitable strategy out there requires some sort of complicated strategy involving multiple options and/or selling outs/calls. I don’t want your strategy, I’m just curious if it has to be that complicated?


r/options • • 1d ago

Looking for ~10 Windows traders to test an app that locks your order panel until you’ve checked your

0 Upvotes

Disclosure: I built this.

My name is Loay and I am an options trader based in the United kingdom. I’ve traded options for 3.5 years, and my problem was never strategy. It was taking trades I knew weren’t in my plan, or ones that didn't tick all my criteria, especially after a loss. So I built Veto, a small Windows app to stop me from taking out-of-strategy plays and stick to my rules, and I use it every day.

What it does: it sits in front of your platform’s order panel (NinjaTrader, Tradovate, TradingView, thinkorswim and others) and locks the execution window. Before you can place a trade, you check it against your own strategy checklist. You click unlock and ur rules in a checkbox format pops up, once confirmed it unlocks and you can take the trade. The aim is simple: help you stick to your plan and stay disciplined in the heat of the moment, and cut out impulse trades like revenge trades after a loss, FOMO entries and the “just one more”.

It’s not magic. It works as well as the rules you write and how consistently you use it.

What it doesn’t do: it doesn’t connect to your broker or prop account, doesn’t read your positions or trades, and never places or manages a trade. It only locks the window or app.

What I’m asking: For traders to help me by testing the app. Use it for several trading sessions (at least 5 sessions on 5 different days within 3 weeks), tell me what's good, what breaks, and give me honest feedback.

What you get: 12 months of Veto free if you complete the testing. Nothing to buy, no card.

Windows 10 or 11 only for now.

If you are interested or have any questions, please DM me and ill send you a quick form and/or answer any questions you have.

PS: I am an indie developer & options trader who created this tool to help me be consistent with my strategy. I built it because over 6 months, I found out that i made $4,100 from my strategy and lost $4,175 from out-of-strategy plays like scalps or even my strategy plays that didn't tick every single required box. This has helped me reduce those out-of-strategy plays. It's also very helpful if you are trying a new strategy and want some help sticking to it - it acts as that conscious decision before you click buy/sell. I basically want to test out if this is something other traders would be interested in and would help them and if so, i may look into launching it to the market. but for you guys it will be 100% free and you wont even need ur card to get access for the first 12 month


r/options • • 1d ago

6 Week S&P Return After First Rate Hike In Past 4 Rate Hike Cycles

6 Upvotes

In the past 4 rate hike cycles, 6 weeks after the first rate hike in the cycle, the S&P was down 4% or more. This time around, the S&P has GAINED 1.0% from 7552 on the day of the rate hike to the current 7624. Really seems to be bucking the trend this year. Is it because the markets knew a rate hike was coming 2 or 3 months beforehand?

Teal line is 2026 and assumes the same close on Wednesday as the past Friday. Do you think we dodged the bullet this year or is a 4% drop around the corner?


r/options • • 1d ago

Are there any consistently profitable retail options traders who trade for a living?

75 Upvotes

I'm curious whether anyone here knows of legitimate retail options traders who consistently generate enough income to support themselves through trading, ideally people who share their experiences through blogs, Reddit, X, YouTube, or other platforms.

To be clear, I'm not looking for gurus, paid courses, signal services, or people selling subscriptions. I'm interested in people who actually trade their own money, manage risk, and have built a sustainable track record over multiple years.

I'm particularly interested in options premium-selling strategies (credit spreads, iron flies, iron condors, etc.), but would love to learn from traders running other strategies as well.


r/options • • 2d ago

$BROS option ideas going into earnings

3 Upvotes

Just curious for anyone studying this stock if they are running any options strategies into this earnings on Nov. 4th after the bell. Was thinking of selling percentage of capital into some puts into a wheel strategy (if pull back occurs), hedge down post earnings or if upside occurs keep the premium.

Young consumer growth coffee / drink expansion florida, Texas, Midwest with fall drink menu and college kids returning to school. Paired with margin on input costs and same store sales engine, for cash flow store expansion. Forward PE gonna be re-adjusted on Nov. 4th.


r/options • • 2d ago

Zero commissions options brokers and their fills quality

30 Upvotes

What zero commissions options brokers (such as Robinhood, for example) have reliable fills for options spreads on XSP, SPX, QQQ at mid price or better?

I currently experiment with an XSP-based strategy and I do it at Schwab. I get mid price fills but the commissions eat mote than half of the profits. I.e., I've made $127 net profit and I paid $150 in commissions.


r/options • • 2d ago

SPX 5DTE Stops and SPX Gap Resolution | community research pt9

25 Upvotes

hey everyone! had two asks for this month's research

1/ from u/sam9971
"The following backtest in Tastytrade produces double the return of buy and hold:
Sell a 5 DTE SPX put at -.47 delta, stop loss at 200% of premium, enter only one trade at a time, tested over last 5 years.

Is that a fluke or a viable strategy? Do any small changes cause it to fail?

Edit: I just noticed this is similar to a prior research project you did; maybe the question my backtest raises is whether the stop loss changes the outcome. Related: A stop loss is free. Is there a free way to implement a 200% stop loss using options?"

> my summary - it's not a fluke and is viable. this is based on a known market effect. the outperformance stems from leverage (we are comparing a levered strat against non). some things to pay attention to are the actual fills on the stops. there are plenty of instances where the fills can be massive relative to the expectation (and the backtest will not fully capture that effect).

> some graphs below for you to do your own analysis

2/ from u/c13msys

"On SPX, when it gaps more than 0.5% overnight, how does this affect VIX and how often does it eventually fill the gap by timeframes? By noon, by EOD?"

> my summary. studies like this tell you very little. they're interesting but be careful with how you interpret and apply the information. if you are trying to capture some type of persistent price action effect like this, you want to make sure you have a foundation for why it would be there. example, opening range breakouts ORB. these are highly persistent price effects, not simply because of an opening range or probabilistic analysis. but because of how markets behave during that period. on the open there is a significant arrival of information and subsequent order flow. overnight news, pre-market movement, resting orders, etc all become priced in quickly. it establishes a range that once broken, typically indicates a shift in positioning.

that all said - ORB has been heavily targeted, researched, etc. the edge it provides has become razor thin once costs are included. just an example to try to help you with framing.

capabilities:

pretty much anything you can think of. i have equity data back to the 1980s. macro back to the late 1700s. EOD options from 2007 on. intraday options data from 2015 to present. full greeks, vols, etc. any signal you can think of (if i dont have, i can easily make it), etc.

see below for prior research posts:

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1v403qd/earnings_season_progress_report_mkt_research/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1v0h9m8/0dte_spx_greek_behavior_mkt_research_snapshot_pt6/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1uoh494/theta_decay_measured_on_19_years_of_real_spy/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u4dgcz/0dte_spx_iron_condor_study

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u63m6i/spx_iron_fly_research_results/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u63zqw/qqq_short_downside_puts_research/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u6s42a/research_offer_pt4/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1ve01nw/delta_hedging_and_your_returns_community_research/


r/options • • 3d ago

Options simulator

17 Upvotes

Hi guys,

Looking for a platform to simulate a option trade with historical data.

Like enter a option position in the past date and forward through time till a past expiry to see how it performs ??


r/options • • 3d ago

Tasty Trade Liquidity

10 Upvotes

Hello, I have opened up a tasty trade account with the intention of trading options. I was following UBER options and they didn’t move in a day despite the stock falling three percent. Is it just not reflecting the real price change of the option chain or does it operate its own black pool with no liquidity?


r/options • • 3d ago

Risk manage my short SPX IC

1 Upvotes

I had a short iron condor on that expired today. I closed the call side at .20 and booked my gain.

My put gave me fits

SPX OCT23 +7615/-7625P (20D) 10 contracts - closed 7623

All week my short premium was more than I sold it for ($12). So I didn't see a way to close it and SPX was still in my range.

Expiration day, SPX gapped down on the open but still above my strike.

Took a break and when I came back SPX was below strike and I'm kicking myself for 10 contracts and the 10 wide spread.

Took another break and SPX is hanging out at 7640, I'm watching, watching, refreshing pricing, premium dropping dropping. I keep watching premium at $6, $5, $4, $3.

I have to get on a call with my boss so I pull up the -7625P and Buy to Close with a stop limit at $4.00 and limit at $4.50. About 10 minutes into my call it executes. So further kicking myself. I finish the call, SPX at 7630, I close out my 7610 while it still has value.

Market closed at 7623 so had I let it expire I would have been fucht.

My mistakes among many:
1) 10 wide on my long positions - ok for 1 lot but not for 10
2) Expiration: I put the trade on Monday with a Friday expiration - I should have looked at pricing / ivol on other days - it seems that as soon as I put the short put on it was under water
3) I'm trading on Fidelity and using trading view to chart - I keep a journal of the trades but it gets difficult to manage the P&L of the trade once you start unwinding - probably need to track this in excel to understand B/E points better (trading view is good visually)
4) Did I do the right thing with the stop limit?
5) I'm a chud


r/options • • 3d ago

Low delta SPXW 1DTE Put selling back tests

23 Upvotes

My post sharing my results for last year caused quite a discussion. In retrospect, I should have labeled the graph more clearly, because about half of the comments mistook the chart of P&L for a chart of my account value.

But beyond the confusion, there were quite a few good points about tweaking the strategy, to run either spreads, 0DTE, or strangles. And a lot of people interested in backtesting results for various periods, which I'm happy to share.

Strategy summary

Before I go into the numbers, a quick recap of what my strategy is:

  • Have an account with porfolio margin, that is fully invested in a mix of equity and bond ETFs (I run 50:50)
  • Entry: 15min before close, sell a SPXW naked put expiring the next trading day (1DTE) at ~5 delta
  • Sizing: I run 2 contracts on a $440k account, which is enough to survive a 20% drop in the index in one day. That's what I consider the worst realistic case (worst ever recorded SPY day)
  • No active management, let expire (and sometimes pay for assignment)

Backtest results

All backtests start in 2016/1/1 (first date available in Whispertrades), have a starting portfolio value of $125k and are selling 2 contracts (in 2016, SPX was ~2k, so the sizing is about the same as my 2 contracts on a $440k portfolio).

The backtest assumes your portfolio is in cash, to isolate the results of the option trading. To make the above strategy attractive vs just holding equity, you need to run it in an account with portfolio margin, so the option results are layers on top of your portfolio performance, but that's not simulated by the backtest.

Each backtest has a link to the full backtest run on the platform, which should be public, so you can look into the results in more details. If you don't trust Whispertrades, the strategy is extremely simple, so should be easy to validate in whatever tool you trust. I'm reasonably confident that for such a simple setup, the results should not be very sensitive to data quality.

Summary comparison

  • A wide stop loss actually helped (assuming the backtest fills are realistic) - It's similar CAGR (10.8% vs 10.6%), with a smaller worst drawdown and almost double Sortino. I didn't dig into the details enough to understand how realistic the fills are, so this is the big caveat. Might play with adding these in my live trading
  • Spreads are a terrible deal at 5 delta - The long put eats most of the premium, so you're left with 2.5% CAGR and the deepest drawdown (-22.7%). Defined risk doesn't mean less risk, you just lose in smaller chunks more often.
  • The short call just isn't worth it - 1.6% CAGR over almost 11 years, and one bad week (the April 2025 tariff pause rally) wiped out years of gains. It's the only backtest that ran out of buying power, so couldn't enter positions later in the run as SPX value increased
  • 0DTE avoids the overnight risk, but most of the edge goes with it - It had the smallest drawdown (-10.5%), but only 4.0% CAGR vs 10.6% for 1DTE. The overnight premium is worth it for me personally
  • None of these beat buy-and-hold SPX - If your choice is to run this backed by cash in RegT account, SPX did 13.1% CAGR over the same period, so you'd be better of being just long equity. But short volatility can be an attractive addition if you have portfolio margin and can layer it over your regular holdings
Strategy End value Total return CAGR Max DD Sortino Corr. to SPX Link
0) 1DTE naked put, no SL (my strategy) $370,904 196.7% 10.6% -14.8% 0.37 0.40 link
1) 1DTE put spread 50p, no SL $163,070 30.5% 2.5% -22.7% 0.02 0.38 link
2) 1DTE naked put, 10x SL $377,942 202.4% 10.8% -13.9% 0.66 0.44 link
3) 1DTE naked call only, no SL $147,791 18.2% 1.6% -11.8% -0.06 -0.39 link
4) 0DTE naked put, no SL $190,867 52.7% 4.0% -10.5% 0.16 0.22 link
SPX (benchmark) ~$474,400 279.5% 13.1% -33.9% 0.79 1.00 –

0) Results for the strategy as I run it

1DTE (last 15min entry) SPXW naked short put at 5 delta, no stop loss

Backtest: https://whispertrades.com/backtests/CMVDPDROK7/view

Metric Strategy SPX
End portfolio value $370,904 ~$474,400
Total return 196.7% 279.5%
CAGR 10.6% 13.1%
Max drawdown -14.8% (-$50,072) -33.9%
Sortino 0.37 0.79
Annualized vol 8% 18%
Correlation / Beta to SPX 0.40 / 0.18 –

Performance by year (max drawdown within the year in brackets)

Year Strategy SPX
2016 +7.5% (-6.5%) +10.0% (-9.3%)
2017 +14.2% (-2.2%) +18.0% (-2.8%)
2018 +0.8% (-11.2%) -5.0% (-19.8%)
2019 +15.5% (-3.3%) +26.2% (-6.8%)
2020 +26.5% (-7.2%) +21.1% (-33.9%)
2021 +21.3% (-2.4%) +24.7% (-5.2%)
2022 +5.8% (-6.4%) -18.7% (-25.4%)
2023 +10.8% (-1.1%) +22.6% (-10.3%)
2024 +0.9% (-5.1%) +21.8% (-8.5%)
2025 +3.3% (-13.5%) +16.9% (-18.9%)
2026 YTD +10.7% (-6.3%) +13.2% (-9.1%)

1) Running spreads instead of naked puts

1DTE SPXW put credit spreads, with main put at 5 delta 50p width ($5k max loss), no stop loss.

Backtest: https://whispertrades.com/backtests/QA2KFNLK0X/view

Metric Strategy SPX
End portfolio value $163,070 ~$474,400
Total return 30.5% 279.5%
CAGR 2.5% 13.1%
Max drawdown -22.7% (-$38,316) -33.9%
Sortino 0.02 0.79
Annualized vol 10% 18%
Correlation / Beta to SPX 0.38 / 0.20 –

Performance by year (max drawdown within the year in brackets)

Year Strategy SPX
2016 +1.5% (-6.8%) +10.0% (-9.3%)
2017 +7.4% (-2.4%) +18.0% (-2.8%)
2018 -11.3% (-15.0%) -5.0% (-19.8%)
2019 +10.3% (-5.2%) +26.2% (-6.8%)
2020 +7.6% (-6.8%) +21.1% (-33.9%)
2021 +10.4% (-4.5%) +24.7% (-5.2%)
2022 -7.3% (-15.0%) -18.7% (-25.4%)
2023 +9.1% (-2.3%) +22.6% (-10.3%)
2024 -5.0% (-10.5%) +21.8% (-8.5%)
2025 -3.4% (-15.9%) +16.9% (-18.9%)
2026 YTD +10.9% (-6.2%) +13.2% (-9.1%)

2) Adding a stop-loss

1DTE SPXW naked short put at 5 delta, stop loss at 10x credit received

Backtest: https://whispertrades.com/backtests/SXYTNEL8YS/view

Metric Strategy SPX
End portfolio value $377,942 ~$474,400
Total return 202.4% 279.5%
CAGR 10.8% 13.1%
Max drawdown -13.9% (-$27,049) -33.9%
Sortino 0.66 0.79
Annualized vol 5.5% 18%
Correlation / Beta to SPX 0.44 / 0.14 –

Performance by year (max drawdown within the year in brackets)

Year Strategy SPX
2016 +11.8% (-2.7%) +10.0% (-9.3%)
2017 +13.3% (-0.8%) +18.0% (-2.8%)
2018 +10.3% (-3.6%) -5.0% (-19.8%)
2019 +8.5% (-2.6%) +26.2% (-6.8%)
2020 +18.2% (-13.9%) +21.1% (-33.9%)
2021 +18.6% (-1.6%) +24.7% (-5.2%)
2022 +5.2% (-5.1%) -18.7% (-25.4%)
2023 +11.5% (-1.1%) +22.6% (-10.3%)
2024 +0.0% (-5.3%) +21.8% (-8.5%)
2025 +9.3% (-5.6%) +16.9% (-18.9%)
2026 YTD +11.2% (-1.8%) +13.2% (-9.1%)

3) Selling strangles instead

1DTE SPXW short call at 5 delta, no stop loss - Only the call, to isolate the marginal impact of adding the short call

Backtest: https://whispertrades.com/backtests/4CEOZEUPUD/view

Metric Strategy SPX
End portfolio value $147,791 ~$474,400
Total return 18.2% 279.5%
CAGR 1.6% 13.1%
Max drawdown -11.8% (-$18,775) -33.9%
Sortino -0.06 0.79
Annualized vol 6.6% 18%
Correlation / Beta to SPX -0.39 / -0.15 –

Performance by year (max drawdown within the year in brackets)

Year Strategy SPX
2016 -2.4% (-5.6%) +10.0% (-9.3%)
2017 +3.0% (-1.7%) +18.0% (-2.8%)
2018 -3.6% (-8.5%) -5.0% (-19.8%)
2019 +2.5% (-4.5%) +26.2% (-6.8%)
2020 +7.4% (-7.5%) +21.1% (-33.9%)
2021 +3.7% (-3.0%) +24.7% (-5.2%)
2022 +5.3% (-5.8%) -18.7% (-25.4%)
2023 +2.6% (-2.9%) +22.6% (-10.3%)
2024 +3.2% (-2.7%) +21.8% (-8.5%)
2025 -2.5% (-11.8%) +16.9% (-18.9%)
2026 YTD -1.8% (-5.9%) +13.2% (-9.1%)

4) Selling 0DTE instead of 1DTE to avoid overnight risk

0DTE (first 15min entry) SPXW naked short put at 5 delta, no stop loss

Backtest: https://whispertrades.com/backtests/USLN3YKR5Q/view

Metric Strategy SPX
End portfolio value $190,867 ~$474,400
Total return 52.7% 279.5%
CAGR 4.0% 13.1%
Max drawdown -10.5% (largest $ drawdown: -$16,924) -33.9%
Sortino 0.16 0.79
Annualized vol 5.4% 18%
Correlation / Beta to SPX 0.22 / 0.07 –

Performance by year (max drawdown within the year in brackets)

Year Strategy SPX
2016 +2.5% (-1.1%) +10.0% (-9.3%)
2017 +3.9% (-0.3%) +18.0% (-2.8%)
2018 -7.9% (-10.5%) -5.0% (-19.8%)
2019 +10.6% (-0.6%) +26.2% (-6.8%)
2020 +13.0% (-2.9%) +21.1% (-33.9%)
2021 +4.4% (-1.8%) +24.7% (-5.2%)
2022 +9.2% (-2.9%) -18.7% (-25.4%)
2023 +5.7% (-3.5%) +22.6% (-10.3%)
2024 -3.5% (-6.0%) +21.8% (-8.5%)
2025 +1.0% (-8.7%) +16.9% (-18.9%)
2026 YTD +6.1% (-3.7%) +13.2% (-9.1%)

r/options • • 3d ago

Weeklies beat monthlies for selling premium and it’s not close. Prove me wrong.

128 Upvotes

Everyone here repeats 30-45 DTE like it's a law. I think it's just habit.

Say a monthly put pays 2.8% over 30 days. A weekly at the same delta pays around 1% over 7 days. The monthly looks better until you do it per day. The weekly works out to roughly 52% a year and the monthly is around 34%.

You also get to reset your strike every week instead of being stuck with one you picked a month ago.

Yes I know gamma is higher and the stock can move fast. That's what sizing and a stop are for. And yes it's more work. I'd rather do the work than leave that much premium on the table.

So tell me what I'm missing. What's the real reason to sit in a 45 DTE contract?


r/options • • 3d ago

ECONVITALS Economic Data

1 Upvotes

Harvard economist Jason Furman said he vibecoded a free economic dashboard in one night with Claude:

https://econvitals.org/

We spent a couple hours comparing it to St. Louis Fed's FRED database, and while Econvitals isn't nearly as comprehensive as FRED, it's kind of winning us over with the cleaner layout and easy-to-read economic data for GDP, jobs, inflation, Fed, etc.


r/options • • 3d ago

I backtested 17,100 option-selling strategies on SPY and QQQ (2022 to 2026)

90 Upvotes

Backtest of option selling on SPY and QQQ, split by dealer gamma exposure (GEX). Method and numbers below.

Setup

  • SPY and QQQ, January 2022 to October 2026.
  • 17,100 strategies: 6 structures (short put, short call, strangle, put and call credit spreads, iron condor), 6 deltas (0.10 to 0.40), 4 expiries (0DTE to 1 month), 6 exits, 15 GEX and VRP filters.
  • Core test: same-day short strangles at 0.10 or 0.25 delta, 0DTE or 1-week expiry, sold at 09:35 ET and bought back at 15:55 ET.
  • Contracts: nearest to target delta, open interest of at least 250, spread of at most 20%.
  • Priced from archived bid/ask quotes at four fill levels (mid to full spread), $1 per contract per leg.
  • Regime: net GEX and gamma flip from the previous session's 15:55 ET snapshot, so no look-ahead.

Where the losses were

Share of trades, dollar losses and worst 5% of trades that fell on negative-GEX days:

ETF Strangle Trades Losses Worst 5% p
QQQ 0DTE, 0.10 delta 54% 71% 66% 0.031
QQQ 0DTE, 0.25 delta 55% 68% 67% 0.049
QQQ 1 week, 0.10 delta 59% 76% 81% 0.002
QQQ 1 week, 0.25 delta 60% 75% 77% 0.013
SPY 0DTE, 0.10 delta 60% 74% 71% 0.027
SPY 0DTE, 0.25 delta 63% 72% 76% 0.032
SPY 1 week, 0.10 delta 62% 73% 78% 0.008
SPY 1 week, 0.25 delta 63% 73% 75% 0.027

p is the share of over 1,000 calendars, each the negative-gamma calendar shifted by 63 or more sessions, that caught the losses at least as well.

Selling only on positive-GEX days

Sharpe of monthly P&L and max drawdown at mid fills:

ETF Strangle Sharpe, every day Sharpe, +GEX only Max DD, every day Max DD, +GEX only
QQQ 0DTE, 0.25 delta +0.35 +1.38 -$6,402 -$2,856
QQQ 0DTE, 0.10 delta +0.04 +1.06 -$4,122 -$1,535
QQQ 1 week, 0.25 delta -0.25 +1.14 -$5,687 -$845
QQQ 1 week, 0.10 delta -0.40 +1.02 -$3,712 -$445
SPY 0DTE, 0.25 delta +0.26 +0.54 -$5,907 -$2,276
SPY 0DTE, 0.10 delta +0.20 +0.66 -$3,052 -$1,377
SPY 1 week, 0.25 delta -0.33 +0.25 -$4,724 -$1,218
SPY 1 week, 0.10 delta -0.55 +0.18 -$3,725 -$690

Fills

At full bid/ask, selling every day lost money in every setup. The filter stayed ahead at every fill level, but at full spread all four filtered SPY setups and two of the four filtered QQQ setups also lost money. QQQ 0DTE at 0.25 delta held +0.72 filtered against -0.47 every day.

Across all 17,100 strategies

  • Strongest same-day rule: positive GEX with price above the gamma flip, using the flip only on days it passed coverage, quote-quality and stability checks. It beat random calendars on both ETFs (p = 0.005 SPY, 0.006 QQQ).
  • Plain positive GEX passed on QQQ but not on SPY (p = 0.21).
  • Negative GEX and high VRP as filters on their own did no better than random.
  • Taking profit at 50% of credit cut max drawdown in 179 of 180 held-to-expiry designs (median 28%).
  • Highest Sharpe overall: 0.10-delta 1-month SPY put sold every day, held to expiry. Sharpe +4.08, 97% winners, and a $57,739 drawdown while positions were open. GEX filters lowered its Sharpe.

Not investment advice.
link to full article


r/options • • 4d ago

Does "letting your winners run" apply to 0dte?

18 Upvotes

I have a bad habit of cutting winners early to lock in profits, only to see them take off beyond what I would have imagined. Other times I will set a stop or trailing loss only to see it reverse just enough to stop me and then take off again.

How do people manage risk when trading 0dte? Or do you just not?


r/options • • 4d ago

Mix between PMCC, LEAPS and Excercising the option

4 Upvotes

I am trying to generate a strategy that serves as a method to generate income and making an effort to own the shares at the end of the contract.

The idea is to open a LEAPS option whenever I find a high quality, dividend paying, blue chip stock that is trading close to their 52W lows. I am looking at company that are trading lower because of a speicifc event but still hold a massive competitive advantage.

Once we find it we open LEAP options. 18 months. (5 - 10 contracts). These contract will be expensive 0.80 Delta 18 months ahead. (Around 5 - 10k initial investment)

Once the price stabilizes or recovers substantially we will start selling covered calls against those options. These covered calls are not neccesarily to make profit or to generate income to sustain the portfolio, these covered calls will serve as an amortization schedule payment to decrease the Adjusted payment of the recently bought LEAP options.

As time goes by, considering that the high quality business is recovering or not trading any lower, we will see how the adjusted effective price of the LEAP options go down as covered calls chip away value.

In the end you will have these contracts with a massive discount, adj price speakingwise, the cost on the broker will be the same.

Right when the contract is about to expire we will Exercise those options. We will get those shares at the discounted price, that where bought with an option that was massively discounted by the covered calls sold against it.

Because we are talking about good high quality businesses we will be more than happy to own all of these shares and sell covered calls against them in the future with the intent of generating a synthetic dividend.

Please note that if at any point the price increases and the covered call becomes in the money we will close the entire trade. Meaning, we will Buy to close the sold covered call at a loss, and also we will sell to close the LEAP option that was supporting that covered call.

We are never going to use all LEAPS / CC at the same time in case there is a massive increase in price. We will only use all of them at the end of the contract to get the most juice out of everything bought.

Feedback is very welcome.

Would love for anyone to share their LEAP / PMCC experience and if they could share the specific of previous trades. I am trying to test this strategy and it would be very helpful to have as much informaiton as possible.


r/options • • 4d ago

Are there any options that are currently on the cheaper side?

0 Upvotes

I am down to $20 now and need some recommendations for good option trades to not lose it all lmao


r/options • • 4d ago

community research pt9

7 Upvotes

hey everyone! seeing if you have anything trading related that you're interested in researching. i enjoy doing research and part of my monthly cadence is to pop in here and see if i can help a few people out.

ill pick one or two and follow up with a post with the research. this is a great way to prove out some of your ideas and see if what youre doing is value add or not.

for capabilities, pretty much anything you can think of. i have equity data back to the 1980s. macro back to the late 1700s. EOD options from 2007 on. intraday options data from 2015 to present. full greeks, vols, etc. any signal you can think of (if i dont have, i can easily make it), etc.

see below for prior research posts:

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1v403qd/earnings_season_progress_report_mkt_research/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1v0h9m8/0dte_spx_greek_behavior_mkt_research_snapshot_pt6/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1uoh494/theta_decay_measured_on_19_years_of_real_spy/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u4dgcz/0dte_spx_iron_condor_study

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u63m6i/spx_iron_fly_research_results/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u63zqw/qqq_short_downside_puts_research/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1u6s42a/research_offer_pt4/

- https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1ve01nw/delta_hedging_and_your_returns_community_research/


r/options • • 4d ago

Friday 23 October expected price

1 Upvotes

Netflix (NFLX) expectations. for tomorrow's end market i expect a target price of 66,70$, 66,85$ if we count also the pinning effect. contract price for Call at strike 66$ is 1,27$ with an open interest of 8,200 contracts we can assume were mostly Out-the-money and market makers won't be willing to raise the price higher than 67$. on the Put side we have a lower price of just 0.54$ which could seem like Market Makers are quite (with a lot of carefullness) sure the market will no go under 67$, BUT almost all open interest Put contracts in the strike 67$were In-the-Money so the price was higher.


r/options • • 4d ago

A year of selling boring SPX options

Post image
627 Upvotes

October 2025, I've started regularly selling low delta SPX 1DTE puts, after getting inspired by Big ERN and WealthyOption strategies.

Strategy

The strategy I'm running is very mechanical, and quite simple (takes about 5 minutes most days):

  • Sell 1DTE SPX puts on portfolio margin, around 5 delta (strikes tend to be ~1.5% OTM)
  • Entry:
    • 1-3 contracts around day close (within 15 min of market close),
    • Sometimes I'll also sell an extra 0DTE pre-market, if volatility jumped and I believe there's not a solid catalyst
  • Exit:
    • Let expire most days
    • I'll check pre-market when I get up and sometimes close at a loss if a catalyst event happened - I don't have set rules for this

It's a classic case of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, or selling casino tickets. Most days, you collect $200-300, and every now and then, you get hit for thousands or tens of thousands.

Why do I run this

Extra income on top of my portfolio - I'm retired, so rely on my portfolio for income and selling puts generates cash, without having to draw down the portfolio. While the return % is not a lot, it's essentially free extra money (until the market has a 10% intraday crash in period of low volatility, I accept that risk)

Low-ish correlation with long term SPY - The low delta put selling P&L is weakly correlated with SPX itself (the strategy is profitable on most longer term declines and bleeds only when the regime changes abruptly). This gives me a hedge against a prolonged bear market, and helps with sequence of returns risk

Results

I do this on top of my taxable portfolio in IBKR, with portfolio margin, so the put selling returns come on top of the performance of the underlying portfolio. After a year of running this, the results are:

  • Portfolio size: ~$440k - mix of global equity and bond ETFs
  • Gross premium collected: $80,840
  • Debit (from assignments): $41,698 - worst day $26k
  • Fees: $658
  • Net P&L: $38,484 ( ~8%)
  • Premium capture rate (share of gross premium kept): 47.60%

The above returns are based on selling 1-3 contracts per day, with the majority of days being 2 contracts. Assuming a max loss per contract of about $110k (on a 15% 1 day drop), this is about 50% of the porfolio size. I could run the same strategy with 3, or potentially even 4 contracts, which would increase the return, but at the moment, I'm not comfortable with that amount of risk.

Lessons learned

Paper trading was worthless as a test of the strategy - I ran the strategy for about a month in a paper trading account, to test it, but ultimately, this was pretty pointless, beyond learning the mechanics of trading on IBKR. The emotions with real money are completely different, and I still shit the bed when that first 8k drawdown hit

Researching the strategy and running back-tests kept me going - Before running this, I was strictly a VOO and chill kind of person. I spent a long time researching options, the strategy, and reading different points of view, as well as running my own back-tests before starting live trading. This gave me a fairly strong conviction that the strategy is long term profitable, which was what kept me going after the first sizable loss.

Active management based on my judgement cost me P&L - Sometimes, I closed positions early if a major event happened, or if I happened to watch the price action and it was too close for comfort to my strike. And at times, I reduced the number of contracts from 2 to 1, when I believed the market was due a correction. In both case, had I done nothing, the strategy would have been more profitable overall. Knowing this, I'm still sometimes actively managing it, but I accept it's more for my comfort, than to improve performance

Mechanical stop losses & close early decrease P&L - I've not run these live myself, but from all the back-testing I've done, setting any kind of mechanical stop loss, or closing early reduces the P&L. Mainly due to the fact that the puts often explode in value somewhere during the day, but still expire worthless most of the time.

Profitability is entirely driven by your worst days - If I could have somehow avoided the 3 worst days, I'd have been 2x as profitable. Based on my experience from the year, I'm unfortunately not able to consistently do this. So I budget on around 40% premium capture rate