I’m trying to figure out Governor Scott’s vision for dealing with property taxes vis à vis school district consolidation, which, as I understand it, is no longer mandatory, but remains a priority for him. Please help me parse this out!
In my current understanding, the argument is that property taxes are high largely due to inefficiencies in how school districts in Vermont are set up. Basically, there are too many districts and the decreased student population can’t justify keeping these districts the way they have been, as it just costs too much. While I’ve heard Scott make a distinction between district consolidation and school consolidation (meaning he is advocating for the former, not necessarily the latter), I don’t really see how the latter is avoidable given the former. If I’m missing something here, please let me know. Scott has also explicitly tied high property taxes to a dearth of young families in Vermont. If taxes were lower, young families would be more attracted to moving here, seems to be the argument.
So, if I can assume that some towns will lose their schools, the argument seems to be that taxes will go down for those towns (and probably other towns within the district, right?), which will lower people’s taxes already, and then you’ll have a downstream effect of more young families moving in, which further lowers individual taxes by growing the tax base.
The problem I see with this is, why would a young family move to a town that doesn’t have a school? I’m not sure low property taxes would incentivize most young families to move somewhere that requires their kids to either be homeschooled or potentially ride a bus for two hours a day. If this is indeed the case, then closing a school would not grow the tax base. It may offer a temporary reprieve from high property taxes, but you’d likely suffer both an exodus of current residents with school-age children as well as a deterrent effect on potential new residents with kids moving in. You’d be left with a town that has no appeal to young families, and likely largely populated just with older folks left to pay all the taxes on fixed incomes, which seems unsustainable. Infrastructure and public services will suffer, and the town becomes even less attractive, dying a slow death.
Is the strategy behind Scott’s approach to provide immediate relief, and then, when, somehow, things “get better”, like maybe there are magically more families moving in because the low tax rates are irresistible and there are once again enough kids in a town to justify having a school, that the death spiral will be averted? Is there even a vision beyond making taxes go down at any cost?
Perhaps the idea is that the towns that retain schools will be more attractive to young families, as those towns should also enjoy lower property taxes. Are we just sacrificing the towns who close their schools and accepting that they will slowly die? Won’t that just cause consolidation of populations around towns that do have schools, resulting in the destruction of Vermont’s decentralized, “rural character” (of which Scott fashions himself a champion)?
I can’t figure out how making towns less attractive to the young families we all say we want to bring in somehow makes those towns more attractive to those families thanks to lower taxes.
Full disclosure: I generally disagree with the sentiment that sacrificing public services is worth the savings in taxes, so that’s already my bias, but I’m really trying to understand Scott’s approach here, and give him the benefit of the doubt that there’s more to the plan than “tax number go down”. We got out of the Great Depression by spending enormously on public works, not by tightening our belts and preventing anything from getting done. It seems to me that, historically, the solution is some form of generous but prudent fiscal policy, not austerity, which just worsens a death spiral and never seems to have produced any long term solution to economic problems. How does Scott’s plan avoid the death spiral?
Thanks for discussion in good faith. I am a dummy and only have a very surface level grasp of economics, so happy to be corrected on anything.