r/Asean • u/mrwhiskeyrum • 16h ago
Politics South China Sea Code of Conduct: A Deal Is Not Enough
As ASEAN and China work toward concluding a Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea in 2026, the central question is not simply whether an agreement can be reached, but whether it will meaningfully reduce tensions. A deal is not enough if it does not address the underlying drivers of tension and shape actors’ behaviors.
The South China Sea is a contested maritime zone, involving China and ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. To address the overlapping maritime claims and disputes, ASEAN and China have been negotiating a COC to establish a rules-based framework to manage maritime disputes, reduce miscalculations, and prevent armed conflict.
After nearly two decades of negotiations, Manila, as the current ASEAN chair, has recently signaled that agreement on the COC is at hand. A COC would represent an important diplomatic achievement.
Yet an agreement that lacks credible enforcement mechanisms, preserves ambiguity over compliance, or constrains Southeast Asian countries’ strategic autonomy could do little to address the region’s underlying security challenges.
The substance of the agreement matters more than announcing its completion. A COC that primarily reiterates commitments to dialogue, restraint, and peaceful dispute resolution – like those contained in the existing Declaration of Conduct – would have limited practical value. The COC needs clear procedures for managing incidents, resolving disagreements, and addressing violations.
