The strongest storm of the year, plus data centers in water-stressed areas, Ebola in Nigeria, protests, terrorism, and Wars that seem to have no off-ramp—and may be colliding.

Last Week in Collapse: October 18-24, 2026

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can’t-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 252nd weekly newsletter. The October 11-17, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. The unabridged newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.

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Super Typhoon Champi rumbled through the Philippines before lashing Taiwan on its path to eastern China. Its sustained wind speeds exceeded 185mph (298 kph) and made it the strongest storm of 2026—so far, anyway—before it weakened over Taiwan. By Friday, one person was slain, and 170+ injured, by the storm in Taiwan, which shut down for a day to endure the storm.

The UN released its 112-page Emissions Gap Report for 2026, addressing how large national cuts must be if humanity is to reverse the 1.5 °C overshoot that we are rocketing past. Under current conditions, they predict a rise of 2.8 °C warming by 2100. The best case situation is now cutting GHG emissions by 18% by 2030, which would let global warming temporarily hit 1.8 °C and theoretically allow us to bring the global temperature anomaly back below 1.5 °C by the end of the century. Emissions would also have to be cut to 45% (from 2025 levels) by 2035, and then by 69% by 2040.

“The chance of holding global warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels with no or limited overshoot is gone….larger exceedance of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels based on multidecadal averages is now imminent and unavoidable the….the old mitigation pathways that guided policymakers are now outdated and must be replaced….CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion of oil, coal and gas, and nitrous oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases (F-gases) emissions continued to increase in 2025….Overall, while 63 countries decreased their emissions over the past decade (totalling -1.8 GtCO2e per year from 2016 to 2025), these were outweighed by 124 countries increasing their emissions (totalling +7.1 GtCO2e)….global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be reduced by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, all relative to 2025 levels…”

A deforestation tracker calculated that Indonesia’s wildfire tree loss for the first nine months of 2026 is 38% worse than the same period in 2019—Indonesia’s 2nd worst wildfire year on record. They calculated forest loss at over 19,000 sq km, equivalent to more than two Cyprus islands. Meanwhile, as the Colorado River dries up, cities and farmers and data centers are turning to greater exploitation of groundwater to meet their needs, depleting an often unseen source of freshwater faster than it can be replenished. Woe to the poorer & smaller towns and tribes, whose more shallow wells will dry up first. And although southern France is feeling one of its wettest years on record, much of the rest of the country is under record Drought.

The COP17 biodiversity talks began last week in Armenia, and UN officials say we are not on schedule to meet nature targets. A 16-page report released on Thursday summarizes the state of inaction: “unless collective implementation accelerates rapidly, the 2030 targets and mission will not be achieved….less than half of Parties reported that their national targets were on track for any global target….” Meanwhile, ahead of the COP31 farce in Turkiye next month, a top climate scientist is again warning that global warming is accelerating and various ecosystems’ tipping points are drawing closer.

A prepublication study from Nature re-examined the IUCN Red List’s ~900 species of reef-building coral, and found that “Thirty-three species were assessed as Critically Endangered, 251 as Endangered, and 56 as Vulnerable, most due to risk of population reduction associated with projected thermal stress.” Although the research is being published in 2026, their data “predate the three hottest years on record and the fourth global coral bleaching event (2023-2025), and the first exceedance for an annual mean of the 1.5 °C global warming threshold.” So the situation is probably worse now. The IUCN also reported in a study that [96% of “shallow-water coral reefs” are critically endangered.

Mazatlan, Mexico hit a new October high at 36.6 °C (98 °F). Ocean temperatures off the coast of southern California were 5 °F warmer than usual, and off the coast of Baja California, even hotter. Burkina Faso’s capital saw its hottest October night at 27.7 °C (82 °F), while the capital of the Maldives experienced its hottest October day at 33.9 °C (93 °F). A batch of southern Chinese cities recorded their latest 35 °C days on record, while part of Tasmania cooked under its warmest October day; so did the base of Mt Kilimanjaro, Africa’s tallest mountain. A Collapse of an illegal Colombian gold mine killed 14 people. A 7.0 earthquake struck Tibet on Friday, killing 16+, injuring dozens more, and toppling over 330 homes.

California (population: 39.5M) released a 179-page climate change report on its Central Coast region, roughly the area between LA and Santa Cruz. Among other things, it says that the area will become hotter and (in the spring & fall) drier—though winter storms will become stronger and wetter. Water tables are being lowered, conditions for farm workers are growing more hazardous, and sea level rise is accelerating. “Water systems are already under stress in this groundwater-dependent region….regionwide temperature has risen 1.5°F (0.83°C), with 9 of the 10 warmest years on record after 2014….there is a high likelihood that the Central Coast will continue to have large, severe fires in the coming decades…”

The El Niño 3.4 region’s sea surface temperature is almost 3.5 °C warmer than the 1991-2020 baseline temp. The anomalies have never been so great. Coastal Cornwall, England also saw record temperatures for its surface water in October. But in a moment of good news, the U.S. got a new national park, Chiricahua. We now return to your regularly scheduled doom…

Britain is launching its first task force “to protect communities from climate change” and boost governmental resilience. A UN organization is warning of over 850,000+ displacements in Somalia over the next three months, since precipitation projections foretell massive flooding this winter.

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A study from a couple weeks ago examined data centers around the world and determined that about a quarter of data centers were built in water stressed areas—defined as places that “experienced at least 1 month of water gap annually under 2001–2010 hydrologic conditions….The United States hosts 39% of data centers, with 21% located in water-scarce regions, where overlap with municipal and agricultural demands is pronounced.” The study also assesses the data centers’ access to water under a 3+ °C warming scenario, and found double-digit increases in water scarcity in most of the countries hosting data centers by the end of the century.

By Sunday last week, Ebola cases in Kenya rose to eight; 128 others were in quarantine. Nigeria also reported its first Ebola case, from a woman who traveled from Uganda to Nigeria’s capital, Abuja (urban pop: 2M).

A human tested positive for bird flu in Washington state. Russia reported five cases of mpox in St. Petersburg. France reported the world’s first human case & death from Shamonda virus, normally a disease in livestock; although the disease was not previously believed to be transmissible to humans, there is believed to be no risk to the general public, since the deceased was an exceptional case and suffered from serious immunosuppression.

Research from Sweden suggests a link between Long COVID and higher rates of hypertension. Although COVID infections appear to have become more and more mild as time goes on, experts are still warning that Long COVID can emerge after any infection.

While prices for many foodstuffs across the world have hit record highs, experts say food shortages and higher prices are here to stay, and supplies will probably become scarcer still. Wheat prices alone rose 30% in 2026. The consequences of months of closure of Hormuz, which affected fertilizer as well as fossil fuel supplies, will be felt this winter. So will the prolonged closure of the Black Sea, disruptions to the Red Sea, and the impact of a record-breaking El Niño.

Doom! An article from The Guardian reassesses whether apocalyptic news about the impending Collapse of civilization actually helps us pull our way out of it—or if it just causes hopelessness and inaction. In short, “The problem with doomerism isn’t necessarily that the risks are exaggerated, but that it may create a self-fulfilling prophecy – by engendering helplessness, rather than galvanising people.” Instead, he writes that “telling people about the potential emotional benefits of climate action – such as increased hope and connection – makes them significantly more likely to take action.” But what actions can realistically steer the biosphere away from catastrophe?

One technologist fears that “gradual disempowerment” might be the doomiest AI scenario we face today. Under this scenario, which is already ongoing, AI advancements in mental and physical tasks make humans progressively obsolete—to the point where human cognition degrades and humans become less capable than we were before AI. At this point, any individual’s leverage in society decreases, and we become redundant beings.

A town in Svalbard, melting at about 6x the average of the planet, is seeing its tap water get poisoned by metals released by ongoing permafrost melt. In Afghanistan, about 16M people are [reported to be near “crisis-level hunger.” In the UK, about 40% of people are stressing over the price of heating this winter.

The administrator of FEMA told states to look after themselves and be less dependent on the federal government to aid in disasters. A tanker with almost 300,000 barrels of Russian diesel departed for the U.S. on Friday, though its impact on prices will be negligible. In Malawi, the fuel shortage is becoming much more serious, and the economic pain is starting to get translated into political unrest.

China’s economy grew faster than expected last summer, according to figures recently released; experts are crediting AI with the above average performance. If the AI boom is over, the stock market may see a large washing-away of tech stock gains made in recent years. Indonesia is meanwhile sinking into a precarious position economically: unemployment is rising, personal savings are falling, inflation is worsening, and class mobility only exists in one direction: down. One former UN official opines that the electorates of the world have been disempowered of their ability to decide economic policies, and have fallen into the stranglehold of hedge funds that are squeezing the population through high housing prices, manipulated political processes, and regulations that favor the wealthy.

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Protestors in Albania set fire to their Supreme Court on the fifth day of protests. Protests popped up in Milan and Lisbon and in Spain following similar anti-government protests across France (pop: 69M), which also surged again on Saturday. The aftermath of France’s protests left parts of the city damaged (hundreds of millions of Euros) and ~1,800 people arrested. One protestor died of a heart attack in the street. Meanwhile, the top U.S. diplomat urged Cubans to act with the CIA “to create the change you desire” in the beleaguered island nation.

A few batches of Islamist militants reportedly killed dozens of people in Mali. A mass shooting in Jordan left nine people dead at a Greek Orthodox church, along with 40 others wounded. Experts say China is increasing their hybrid warfare around Taiwan, escalating coast guard maneuvers and adding sanctions on countries engaging in diplomacy with Taiwan. A building under construction Collapsed in Kenya on Friday; at least seven people are unaccounted for.

A new startup is planning to genetically modify breeds (and make clones) of police & military dogs for the U.S., set to be born in 2027. And the son of former Wagner Group’s CEO, who took over the family business after his father’s failed 2023 coup against Putin, is now warlording around the Central African Republic, running weapons, gold, drugs, and more to benefit Russia’s allies around Saharan Africa. In the days before midterm elections, U.S. president Donald Trump asserted that he should be able to run for a third term as President, contrary to the country’s constitution.

The expansion of foreign fishing fleets in the Indian Ocean has had the effect of reducing fishing yields for Somali fishermen—and what are they to do with their boats but turn to piracy? Navies refocused on dealing with the Houthi rebels has also created a moment where naval anti-piracy operations are stretched thin. Tensions are also reportedly growing in parts of Somalia, where regional authorities rejected efforts to delay scheduled elections until 2027.

In Sudan, rebel forces slew 11 people sheltering at a displacement camp; several others were wounded. The next day, two drone attacks against a rebel-held city killed at least 80 people, and was blamed on the central Sudanese government. A few hours later, another attack killed 17 and wounded more in rebel-held Nyala (pop: 1.2M). Ethiopia also accused the central Sudan government of supporting enemies of Ethiopia’s government.

Unverified claims by Tigrayan forces claim that 1,500+ Ethiopian troops were killed in recent fighting. This seems unlikely, but reporting from the area is scant and restricted. Some observers think a larger War may still be avoided. A few hundred Ethiopians have began fleeing into Kenya in expectation of greater violence; they will not be the last. The UN Secretary-General remarked, “We are now witnessing an El Niño of war.”

A mercenary firm private military company which was contracted last year to run stabilization operations in Haiti — and extract customs along their border with the Dominican Republic (pop: 11.6M) — has reportedly prevented gang advances. However, the gang-soldiers of Haiti are adapting: moving further into the countryside, forcibly recruiting more children, and preventing large numbers of fighters from massing. Five UN peacekeepers, Salvadorans, were ambushed on Sunday in Haiti, and are suspected dead. El Salvador is sending special forces to Haiti to find their soldiers, risking further entanglement in the crisis.

Egypt is reportedly considering deploying troops to Saudi Arabia to assist their operations against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen who are trying to interrupt shipping through the Bab-El-Mandeb. Houthis are also blockading & besieging Taiz, the strategic city they have surrounded near the Bab. The UK has already deployed their air force to shoot down Houthi missiles & drones above Saudi Arabia. Another Houthi attack hit a Yemeni military training camp overseen by Saudis; the strike killed 53+ and injured more than 200; it was their most deadly attack in over a year.

Experts, and Iranian officials, are indicating that the Iran War may expand into new areas, and that Iran still has weapons stockpiled left to exploit. (But their floating oil reserves are reportedly gone. It’s been suggested that data centers might be future targets, along with undersea cables, and other hitherto unhit energy facilities, driving the price of Brent crude futures up to 6-month highs. “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has prepared itself for a long-term war,” said one of the IRGC spokesmen. Both parties are discovering how difficult it is to win a War with air power alone. Tactics are no substitute for strategy. Many expect the U.S. and Israel will increase attacks after the U.S. November 3 elections.

~1,000 Syrian soldiers are deploying to the country’s south in deterrrence/preparation of IDF forces establishing a base in the area, south of As-Suwayda (pop: 125,000). About 200 harvest-related attacks were conducted by Israelis in the West Bank this month, resulting in five fatalities and the destruction of some olive groves. And then Israeli forces demolished a neighborhood in the West Bank that sheltered some 1,500 Palestinians, and is closing all of the West Bank’s borders. Meanwhile the UN World Food Programme is cutting food & cash aid in Gaza by about 35% compared to last month. And Israel announced the creation of their own Space Force and their intent to become a major space power.

Late last Sunday night, Ukraine bombarded St. Petersburg (metro pop: 6.4M) using over 1,000 drones, blasting a data center (which took offline banking services for some Russians) and hit an important oil refinery in Russia. The strike was seen as a rebuke to U.S. President Donald Trump and his proclaimed-but-never-witnessed “energy ceasefire” and recent tensions between the Ukrainian & American Presidents. Russian attacks on Kyiv later followed, setting back negotiations yet again.

Russia expanded its attacks on energy infrastructure to western Ukraine, while the U.S. blocked or slowed provision of Patriot missiles to Ukraine. NATO is sending more aircraft to the Black Sea region to surveil or otherwise deter strikes on commercial vessels. Some writers say that WWIII is materializing around us, gradually—a coalition of anti-US powers (Russia, China, North Korea, Iran) against the “US-led world security order.” Will there be a flashpoint awakening—or will the world dissolve into recognized spheres of influence under the shadow of Great Powers? Economic dependencies suggest the former.

British officials say that War in Space is coming, and they are already fending off attempts every day to interfere with British satellites and those of their allies. Russia is allegedly conducting research into methods that might cause the mass disabling of satellites in low-earth orbit—and trigger Kessler Syndrome (runaway space junk), locking humans out of space access for perhaps several decades. And the UN began a forum to try to regulate the military use of AI; but few states will follow the non-binding regulations they suggest.

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Things to watch for next week include:

↠ Israel votes on Tuesday for a new parliament/Knesset. Several scenarios are possible, including a minority government, a centrist grand coalition, or even another election being called. Most likely a simple majority coalition will run the country with a slim majority in the 120-member Knesset. It may mean the difference between another four years of the Gaza War status quo or a closeout of operations within a year. But no election will end the Iran War or the other complex threats present in the region. Brazil also votes today for President in their runoff elections; the right-wing candidate is expected to win a close election.

Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-Society has never really psychologically recovered from the COVID pandemic, according to this self-post from Friday. Or was COVID just the trigger that showed us how fractured society had already become?

-The American Northeast has undergone a kind of ecological Collapse and partial rebound over the past 200 years, according to this post discussing tree species, clear-cut forests, and the rise and decline of farmland in the region. What might a rebound to our future environmental disasters look like?

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