First of all, sharing all this because I’m very interested in all of your thoughts, and hope you share your opinions and tell me where I’m an idiot or even perhaps where you agree. Analysis follows;
Honestly imo Jacobs is 4 tiers above our other RB’s . I think our other three RB’s are all practice squad tier guys on normal depth charts, with Lloyd due to his speed and youth the likeliest to gain consideration at times over the next few years for third string roles on 53 man rosters, but even with him I do think currently he plays at the level of a practice squad RB.
By contrast, I think Jacobs has spent the last 5 years as a lower tier pro bowler, and I didn’t see anything today that made me think that wouldn’t be his level this year. A lower tier pro bowler puts him in the top 30% of RB1’s, aka top 10 RB’s, and that feels about right, with him being something like the 7th or 8th best running back usually. Going from a room whose best guy is the type that probably starts the season on the practice squad and is the first call up when injuries hit to a lower tier pro bowler, aka lower end of top 10 RB’s in the league is, even at a devalued position like RB, an upgrade probably worth a couple of wins all by itself. That’s upgrading from a below replacement level player to an all star basically. In quarterback terms that’s like replacing Bailey Zappe with Dak Prescott (or maybe Joe burrow or Jordan love).
Our offense line still isn’t good but even with the injuries today I feel like it’s fairly firmly established itself in “normal bad offensive line” territory rather than “historically bad offensive line” like it was the first 3 weeks. I sometimes think what this offense would look like with this cool calm collected version of Love combined with the 5 man skill position lineup of Watson, Jacobs, Kraft, Golden, and Reed, plus add back Zach Tom at his lower end of top 10 right tackles peak, and I think we would have been the odds on favorite to have the very best offense in the league, even with a bottom 10 offensive line (which even with a borderline elite right tackle I do believe our O line overall would still be something like 10th worst).
We might not literally be the best offense in football but with that skill position group plus how good Love is now (borderline top 5 QB imo), and just a below average offensive line rather than straight up bad, and imo we’d be in the top 3 for sure. When add the fact that even without parsons and edgerrin cooper and Hargrave our defense has looked like a fairly comfortably top 10 defense, and when with a shitty kicker we’d be inner circle Super Bowl contenders imo.$82!84 you think about parsons coming back at full strength (1st team all pro, top 3 defensive player in the world) to combine with our already genuinely above average D Line, plus Cooper playing at a pro bowl level like he was, with how elite our safeties are plus the fact that Cisse is competently filling the CB1 slot, allowing Nixon to fill the CB2 slot competently, and our defense fully healthy might honestly be better than our fully healthy offense lol 😂. When’s the last time a team with a genuinely shit kicker and a below average offensive line was the unambiguous Super Bowl favorite, in other words hahaha
Of course, no team is ever fully healthy, so it’s all academic even in lucky scenarios. But it is also true that the packers have lost by far the most production to injuries thus far this year (measured by the objective standard of salary sitting on the IR/bench, as well as the subjective opinion that it’s between us and the eagles for that distinction), along with the fact that we are leading the NFL in drops AND absolute horseshit roughing the passer penalties (seriously, bad roughing the passer penalties in this game, the cowboy game, and the Vikings game alone has been more than the average entire season quota of horrendous drive extending bad calls against the defense for all potential bad calls, a quota filled purely from bad roughing the passer calls), and it’s sort of amazing we are 4-3 with a positive point differential.
Like seriously, having the most salary out due to injury of the entire league, the most drops by far, and the most egregiously bad roughing the passer penalties by far, plus playing an above average difficulty schedule thus far, plus having one of the worst performances by our kicking staff of any team so far, and it’s actually kind of amazing we are 4-3.
The rams were way more hyped than we were coming into the season, have had all the same problems as us except for egregious bad roughing penalties, and they are 3-4.
Honestly with how good Cisse Evan Williams Van Ness and Denis, the rookie pass rusher, all look, I genuinely think that this is like an inner circle contending roster with even just above average injury luck and the kicking game improving, even if the drops and egregious penalties stayed the same. I can’t recall the last time I felt as confident as I do about our defense, is really the main reason, plus the fact that Love is truly the real deal